I’ve moved to WordPress. This post can now be found at Preliminary November 2009 SST Anomalies (OI.v2)#################
Keep in mind that the following discussion is based on preliminary monthly OI.v2 Global and NINO3.4 SST anomaly data. The weekly data, though, is official. The official monthly values will be posted by NOAA on December 6, 2009, so check back in a week.
NINO3.4 SST anomalies rose 0.63 deg C during November 2009 to 1.67 deg C.
Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomalies
But Global SST anomalies dropped 0.01 deg C. Hmmm?!
Monthly Global SST Anomalies
The values are consistent with the weekly NINO3.4 and Global SST anomalies.
Weekly NINO3.4 SST Anomalies
Weekly Global SST Anomalies
OI.v2 SST and SST anomaly data and maps are available through the NOAA NOMADS webpage:
Do you have the WEEKLY ANOMALIES fort the ENTIRE PERIOD 1980-2009?
This El Niño, with its upswing in may-july,stagnation in August-October and surge in October-November reminds me to the 1982-1983 El Niño in the montly data, but the graph is coarse.
With WEEKLY data, the comparation will be a lot better.
By the way, I feel (just a guess) that the Pacific Warm Pool and it sorroundings has accumulated a lot of heat in the late 2007-early 2009La Niña, and now all this heat is being released.
Your data can tell if my guess is right or wrong?
Anonymous: You asked, “Do you have the WEEKLY ANOMALIES fort the ENTIRE PERIOD 1980-2009?”
The weekly data OI.v2 is separated in 1990 and I haven’t spliced the two together yet. You could try the NOAA NOMADS website if you want to take a look at the early weekly data:
You wrote, “By the way, I feel (just a guess) that the Pacific Warm Pool and it sorroundings has accumulated a lot of heat in the late 2007-early 2009La Niña, and now all this heat is being released.”
For the early portion of this year’s El Nino, it appeared to be fed in part from a “pool” of water in the northeast tropical Pacific:
The SSH anomaly maps are from JPL:
I’ve seen that happen before with an earlier El Nino, 2002/03 El Nino maybe, which was an El Nino Modoki. This year’s started off that way but appears to have transitioned to a traditional El Nino. With respect to your Pacific Warm Pool observation, yes, the warm water volume was elevated by the two
La Nina events:
That graph is from TAO Project website, which tracks that:
I have an engineering background and am a climate sceptic ( i.e a realist ). What are your graphs showing please? I consider the sun to be a greater influence on temperatures than anything a few billion humans could do. I'd like to learn more.
Anonymous: You asked, "What are your graphs showing please?"
The Global SST anomaly graphs illustrate the difference between the global Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and the mean value for the given period. That is the present monthly global SST anomalies are the difference between the November 2009 SST and the average of November SSTs for the base period. The weekly graphs compare to the means for the given week.
The NINO3.4 SST anomalies are for a specific area of the equatorial Pacific that serves as a relatively consistant expression of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). If one ocnsiders only the linear relationship between NINO3.4 SST anomalies and Global Temperaures, if NINO3.4 SST anomalies were to rise x deg C, then global temperatures should respond approximately three to six months later by rising x deg C multiplied by a factor of approximately 0.09.
This SST dataset is the NOAA/NCDC OI.v2 version. It's based on satellite, buoy and ship readings.
My full monthly updates include the SST anomaly values for individual ocean basins.
But what you believe is more likely in coming months?
A dissipation like in 1992/1993 or in 2002/2003;
A protracted moderate El Niño, like 1986-1987-1988;
Or a mayor development like in 1982/1983, i.e. a Big El Niño?
Anonymous: I'm an observer. I don't make predictions. NOAA is predicting it will last into spring.
I'd prefer a major El Nino. The reason? The Pacific has a large number of ARGO buoys. They would provide an opportunity to follow the warm water after the El Nino. Does the warm water "recirculate" and return to the central tropical Pacific 2 to 7 years later to produce the El Nino Modoki? And if we could have a major El Nino without a volcanic eruption, we can see if it creates the same upward step change in the SST anomalies of the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans, which is what I've been saying is causing the rise in global sea surface temperatures.
I'm struck by the your top graph of Nino anomalies. The wiggles in the 1989-1999 period are remarkably similar to the 2000-2009 period, despite the big volcanic erruption of Pinatubo. I wonder if the volcano had less effect than commonly assumed, and if the temp rises due to the current el nino will follow a similar pattern to the '98 situation.
I notice that globally, the SST's areup, but by a mild amount worldwide, rather than concentrated in east Pacific. More support for my idea of heat leaving the oceans everywhere while the sun is quiet?
tallbloke: You wrote, "I'm struck by the your top graph of Nino anomalies. The wiggles in the 1989-1999 period are remarkably similar to the 2000-2009 period, despite the big volcanic erruption of Pinatubo."
I found the period after the 1973/73 El Nino looked similar too:
You continued, "More support for my idea of heat leaving the oceans everywhere while the sun is quiet?"
Depends on the ocean. The OHC in the North Atlantic has risen over the past two years:
And the OHC in the North Pacific has been going up for the past four years:
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