I’ve moved to WordPress. This post can now be found at Climate Studies Misrepresent The Effects Of El Nino And La Nina Events
####################INTRODUCTIONI posted my first YouTube video on the subject of The Lingering Effects of the 1997/98 El Nino about one year ago. Since then, many of my posts have dealt with the multiyear aftereffects of strong El Nino events (and the subsequent La Nina events), and about the dominant impacts of those ENSO events on the gradual increase in global temperature record since 1975. Anthony Watts of the popular science blog WattsUpWithThat has graciously co-posted many of them, and through those posts, I have reached a much larger audience. With hope of reaching an even broader group of persons interested in Global Warming, I have produced two more videos that now appear on YouTube. The videos titled Climate Studies Misrepresent The Effects Of El Nino And La Nina Events, Parts 1 and 2, start with a reference to the ClimateGate emails. That email was written by Phil Jones of the CRU and refers to one of my guest posts at WattUpWithThat. I’ve tagged the new videos with ClimateGate and Climate-Gate with hope of attracting viewers interested in the CRU emails--to illustrate that climate studies misrepresent the effects of El Nino events, and by doing so, the authors of those papers overestimate the impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
NEW VIDEOS
Climate Studies Misrepresent The Effects Of El Nino And La Nina Events
Part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tepm1w-og40
YouTubeLink
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Climate Studies Misrepresent The Effects Of El Nino And La Nina Events
Part 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BAp_gp32CM
YouTubeLink
LINKS TO FURTHER DISCUSSIONS
The post referenced in the ClimateGate email is:
“Thompson et al (2009) - High-Tech Wiggle Matching Helps Illustrate El Nino-Induced Step Changes”.
The co-post at WattsUpWithThat is here:
A look at the Thompson et al paper – hi tech wiggle matching and removal of natural variables
The first detailed posts on the multiyear aftereffects of El Nino events are:
Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1
And:Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2
And:
Supplement To “Can El Nino Events Explain All Of The Warming Since 1976?”
And:
Supplement 2 To “Can El Nino Events Explain All Of The Warming Since 1976?”
The impacts of these El Nino events on the North Atlantic are discussed in:
There Are Also El Nino-Induced Step Changes In The North Atlantic
And:
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Data
The Lower Troposphere Temperature (TLT) anomaly responses are discussed in:
RSS MSU TLT Time-Latitude Plots... Show Climate Responses That Cannot Be Easily Illustrated With Time-Series Graphs Alone
And:
El Ninos Create Step Changes in TLT of the Northern Hemisphere Mid Latitudes
In addition to the “Wiggle Matching” post, the misrepresentation of ENSO in climate studies are discussed in the following (The discussions are similar but there are differences in the presentation):
The Relationship Between ENSO And Global Surface Temperature Is Not Linear
And:Multiple Wrongs Don’t Make A Right, Especially When It Comes To Determining The Impacts Of ENSO
And:Regression Analyses Do Not Capture The Multiyear Aftereffects Of Significant El Nino Events.”
The posts related to the effects of ENSO on Ocean Heat Content are here:
ENSO Dominates NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Data
And:
North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Is Governed By Natural Variables
More detailed technical discussions can be found here:
More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO – Part 1 – El Nino Events Warm The Oceans
And:
More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 2 – La Nina Events Recharge The Heat Released By El Nino Events AND...During Major Traditional ENSO Events, Warm Water Is Redistributed Via Ocean Currents.
And:
More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 3 – East Indian & West Pacific Oceans Can Warm In Response To Both El Nino & La Nina Events
WATTS UPWITHTHAT VERSIONS
Many of the above posts have been co-posted at WattsUpWithThat. I’ve also provided links to them for those interested in reviewing the comments.
Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1
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Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2
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Multiple Wrongs Don’t Make A Right on ENSO Impacts
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Why regression analysis fails to capture the aftereffects of El Nino events
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ENSO Dominates NODC Ocean Heat Content Data
11 comments:
If nearly all the warming is attributable to El Nino events, doesn't that still suggest that there is net heating of the oceans? So where is that coming from, if not from the residual of the radaitive balance?
Anonymous 1:37AM: During an El Nino, warm water from below the surface of the Pacific Warm Pool sloshes east where it rises to the surface. An El Nino event raises SST anomalies remote to the tropical Pacific via changes in atmospheric circulation.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/more-detail-on-multiyear-aftereffects.html
During the transition from El Nino to La Nina, a Rossby wave carries warm water west from the eastern tropical Pacific, and during the La Nina, trade winds carry the warm surface waters west. Ocean currents redistribute the warm water poleward in the Pacific and also carry it to the Indian Ocean. The increase in trade winds during the La Nina reduces Cloud Cover, which increases Downward Shortwave Radiation (visible light), which recharges the heat that had been discharged during the El Nino.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/more-detail-on-multiyear-aftereffects_26.html
and
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/12/more-detail-on-multiyear-aftereffects.html
The end result of the El Nino and La Nina: The Pacific Warm Pool has discharged and recharged heat, and Global SST anomalies have risen.
Great work, Bob. Not many people seem to pay attention to these fairly obvious (obvious for those who want to see them) interactions on a longer scale.
Thanks
Great post Bob. Have you looked into the cloud data and how it fits with your thesis?
Layman Lurker, asked, "Have you looked into the cloud data and how it fits with your thesis?"
Yup. Refer to:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/more-detail-on-multiyear-aftereffects_26.html
Bob,
Are you trying to make the claim that the oceans are the only environmental medium capable of storing, retaining, and releasing the sun's heat energy over somke period of time?
Why do you purposely choose to ignore the effects of atmospheric water vapor and other trace greenhouse gases and the resultant retention of heat energy in the atmosphere? Without these atmospheric trace gases, the earth's temperature would be 33C (59F) cooler, all due to the retention of heat energy that would otherwise be lost into space.
The storage and time release of the same solar heat energy that you are trying to make into an ocean only property also goes on in the atmosphere as well.
It's the long-term trend lines that show the true nature of the storage and release of the heat energy both in the ocean and in the atmosphere and not the short-term cyclical fluctuations.
The oceans are just able to moderate those fluctuations better as they responds more slowly to the more rapid changes going on in the atmosphere, thus the apparent lag times and step increases/decreases.
Dennis H.
Dennis H: Regarding your 5:37PM comment, using the graphs in this post...
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/09/enso-dominates-nodc-ocean-heat-content.html
...please illustrate the greenhouse gas warming of the oceans.
Dennis: As a follow-up, the GISS Model E projections assumed that the rise in OHC over the past decade or so of the 20th century were the result of greenhouse gas warming. This is why the actual rise in OHC since 2003 has fallen far short of GISS projections. Refer to:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/10/nodc-corrections-to-ocean-heat-content.html
Bob,
As you stated in your postings at ACCU Weather, that the upper layer of the oceans can only be warmed through an increase in short-wave radiation. Since the variation in solar radiation reaching the earth is minuscule at best, the only way an increased level of solar radiation can reach the ocean and cause the warming is through reduced cloud cover.
Latest satellite radiation data shows that cloud cover has been decreasing over the last few decades:
http://www.climate4you.com/ClimateAndClouds.htm
Basically global cloud cover data has decreased about 1.3 percent since 1970.
Using atmospheric models, Penn State researchers indicated that a reduced cloud condensation nuclei during the Cretaceous Period, due to the reduction in ocean plant material, helped to increase the amount of solar radiation reaching the ocean surface. During the Cretaceous Period, CO2 concentrations were in the 1,200 ppm range, global temperatures were around 20C (5.8C warmer than today), and cloud cover was estimated to be in the 55 percent area (a 12 percent reduction from 1970 levels):
http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/south-asia/reduction-in-cloud-cover-amplified-dino-era-global-warming_10036728.html
Developing an admittedly simple linear relationship of CO2 concentrations and reduced cloud cover based on current satellite observations and the 12 percent reduction in cloud cover from current levels for the Cretaceous Period, the amount of CO2 increase since 1970 can easily account for the observed general 1.3 percent reduction in cloud cover and the increased amount of solar radiation reaching the earth's surface (including the ocean's upper layers) during this 39-year period.
So besides water vapor, CO2 and other trace amounts of greenhouse gases storing additional solar heat energy in the atmosphere, the added relationship of reduced cloud nuclei during warming atmospheres can also be shown to increase the amount of heat energy reaching the upper ocean layers through reduced cloud cover.
Yes there are feedback mechanisms within the ocean and lower atmospheric layers that can create short-term cyclical relationships with ocean temperatures and cloud cover, but it is the long term trends of heat storage in both the atmosphere and the oceans that are at issue here and not just the short-term cyclical patterns created by these feedbacks.
Dennis H.
Dennis: You wrote, "Since the variation in solar radiation reaching the earth is minuscule at best, the only way an increased level of solar radiation can reach the ocean and cause the warming is through reduced cloud cover."
And as I've discussed in a post linked above, the reduction in cloud cover can result in a 25 watt/meter^2 increase in Downward Shortwave Radiation during an ENSO event, so your reliance on global variability is falling far short of what has already been discussed.
Here's a link to the post once again:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/more-detail-on-multiyear-aftereffects_26.html
Also read the first in the series for the factors that cause SST to vary outside of the tropical Pacific during an El Nino event:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/more-detail-on-multiyear-aftereffects.html
and:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/12/more-detail-on-multiyear-aftereffects.html
Its time to start watching the ENSO now.
All the indicators are pointing to El Nino conditions and there is a large-scale westerly wind burst.
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