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Monday, June 22, 2009

Mid-June 2009 NINO3.4 SST Anomaly Update

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Mid-June 2009 NINO3.4 SST Anomaly Update
A quick post. Weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies for the week centered on June 17, 2009 are above 0.5 deg C, well into the range of El Nino temperatures.

NINO3.4 SST Anomalies

OI.v2 SST anomaly data is available through the NOAA NOMADS system:


Anonymous said...

Bob and what do SOI-index, thermoclineslope and west equatorial warm pool (Indonesia) tell, no 2009 elnino ?
regards KM

Bob Tisdale said...

KM: Sorry, I don't do predictions, but NINO3.4 SST anomalies appear a little high at this time for an ENSO-neutral 2009/10 season.

Anonymous said...

and already higher global ssta since mid 2005....

David Smith said...

Hi, Bob

I have a mystery and I'm hoping you'll keep it in mind while you do your explorations.
The UAH Daily Temperature website ( http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/ ) provides daily satellite temperatures for channel 5, nominally listed as the 600 mb level. See http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/data/amsu_daily_85N85S_ch05.r002.txt

Here is a plot for the last two years


which shows a clear annual variability, with the max in the NH summer as expected.

If I remove the 10-yr daily average from each daily temperature reading then I get this plot


I think that the trend is tied to ENSO. What intrigues me is not the trend but rather it's the oscillation over a shorter term, about 30-60 days. Temperatures rise rapidly then, in a few days, drop rapidly.

What causes the rapid rise and equally rapid drop? In other words, what physical behavior is tied to those oscillations?

The oscillations seem to stay in a range and amplitude. Why is that?

I think the behavior originates in the tropics, possible tied to MJO behavior. I think it's important, because when the duration of the rises seem to relate to the underlying trends.

Maybe there's some way you can statistically characterize the raw data. Also, by comparing the data to other atmospheric measures, work back to an explanation. I am stumped.

(This is a note to you, as I do not have your e-mail, and not actually a comment for this thread.My e-mail, FYI, is mndsmith33@earthlink.net)


David Smith

Bob Tisdale said...

Anonymous: You wrote, "and already higher global ssta since mid 2005...."

Which is precisely what it should be doing in response to NINO3.4 SST anomalies.

Bob Tisdale said...

David Smith: You asked, "The oscillations seem to stay in a range and amplitude. Why is that?"

Sorry. No idea. I haven't studied it before.

Anonymous said...

there is a 2 months lag between nino 3.4 anomalies(now +0.7°C according to your graph) and global ssta and ssta are already higher then 2006-2007 el nino(that reached +1.4°C)....this latest week is rather anomalous.


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