tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post156299698935905704..comments2023-07-29T05:11:23.558-04:00Comments on Climate Observations: Mid-June 2009 NINO3.4 SST Anomaly UpdateBob Tisdalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-42645473861924930612009-06-24T13:58:36.530-04:002009-06-24T13:58:36.530-04:00there is a 2 months lag between nino 3.4 anomalies...there is a 2 months lag between nino 3.4 anomalies(now +0.7°C according to your graph) and global ssta and ssta are already higher then 2006-2007 el nino(that reached +1.4°C)....this latest week is rather anomalous.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-19932087599146647022009-06-24T08:01:39.977-04:002009-06-24T08:01:39.977-04:00David Smith: You asked, "The oscillations see...David Smith: You asked, "The oscillations seem to stay in a range and amplitude. Why is that?"<br /><br />Sorry. No idea. I haven't studied it before.Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-16234722570837835152009-06-24T07:57:52.865-04:002009-06-24T07:57:52.865-04:00Anonymous: You wrote, "and already higher glo...Anonymous: You wrote, "and already higher global ssta since mid 2005...."<br /><br />Which is precisely what it should be doing in response to NINO3.4 SST anomalies.Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-32186799622736927622009-06-23T22:55:15.985-04:002009-06-23T22:55:15.985-04:00Hi, Bob
I have a mystery and I'm hoping you&#...Hi, Bob<br /><br />I have a mystery and I'm hoping you'll keep it in mind while you do your explorations. <br />The UAH Daily Temperature website ( http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/ ) provides daily satellite temperatures for channel 5, nominally listed as the 600 mb level. See http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/data/amsu_daily_85N85S_ch05.r002.txt <br /><br />Here is a plot for the last two years<br /><br />http://davidsmith1.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/0623092.jpg<br /><br />which shows a clear annual variability, with the max in the NH summer as expected.<br /><br />If I remove the 10-yr daily average from each daily temperature reading then I get this plot <br /><br />http://davidsmith1.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/0623091.jpg<br /><br />I think that the trend is tied to ENSO. What intrigues me is not the trend but rather it's the oscillation over a shorter term, about 30-60 days. Temperatures rise rapidly then, in a few days, drop rapidly. <br /><br />What causes the rapid rise and equally rapid drop? In other words, what physical behavior is tied to those oscillations?<br /><br /><br />The oscillations seem to stay in a range and amplitude. Why is that?<br /><br />I think the behavior originates in the tropics, possible tied to MJO behavior. I think it's important, because when the duration of the rises seem to relate to the underlying trends.<br /><br />Maybe there's some way you can statistically characterize the raw data. Also, by comparing the data to other atmospheric measures, work back to an explanation. I am stumped.<br /><br />(This is a note to you, as I do not have your e-mail, and not actually a comment for this thread.My e-mail, FYI, is mndsmith33@earthlink.net)<br /><br />Thanks,<br /><br />David SmithDavid Smithnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-33270183883043206532009-06-23T15:14:47.849-04:002009-06-23T15:14:47.849-04:00and already higher global ssta since mid 2005....and already higher global ssta since mid 2005....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-70576607370460555142009-06-23T14:52:33.981-04:002009-06-23T14:52:33.981-04:00KM: Sorry, I don't do predictions, but NINO3.4...KM: Sorry, I don't do predictions, but NINO3.4 SST anomalies appear a little high at this time for an ENSO-neutral 2009/10 season.Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-38473218924414454202009-06-23T14:07:22.086-04:002009-06-23T14:07:22.086-04:00Bob and what do SOI-index, thermoclineslope and we...Bob and what do SOI-index, thermoclineslope and west equatorial warm pool (Indonesia) tell, no 2009 elnino ?<br />regards KMAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com