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Friday, October 3, 2008

Southern Oscillation Index Update 10-3-08

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is the surface pressure component of ENSO. It usually precedes the NINO3.4 SST changes by a few months. The SOI has risen for the 4th consecutive month. Refer to Figure 1. It appears we’re in for another La Nina this winter, which would drive global temperatures down more.
Figure 1

For those who can’t see the relationship between the SOI and NINO3.4, I’ve inverted the SOI in Figure 2.
Figure 2


SOI data available from the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology here:

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