September 2008 SST and SOI Update

CORRECTION

In the opening paragraph of this post, I make the following statement: “The newsworthy item this month is the change in the direction of the NINO3.4 SST anomaly data. It’s a minor drop, but it has dropped. IF, big if, it continues to chase the SOI, which it historically tends to do, it has a few more months of decline ahead of it.”

The NINO3.4 SST anomaly does NOT always follow the SOI, though it has been doing so for the past few months. They do correlate remarkably well, but there are times when the changes in NINO3.4 will precede the SOI and times when they can become slightly out of synch. Therefore, I’ll retract the clause “which it historically tends to do”. The sentence should then read, “IF, big if, it (NINO3.4) continues to chase the SOI, it has a few more months of decline ahead of it.”

#

All graphs are from January 1978 to September 2008.

The newsworthy item this month is the change in the direction of the NINO3.4 SST anomaly data. It’s a minor drop, but it has dropped. IF, big if, it continues to chase the SOI, which it historically tends to do, it has a few more months of decline ahead of it. Will the SOI remain there, or fall, or rise more into La Nina territory? (Remember that the SOI and NINO region SST are reversed.) Time will tell.

http://i35.tinypic.com/15ffxbt.jpg
NINO3.4 SST Anomaly
Monthly Change = -0.238 deg C

http://i37.tinypic.com/2agt25c.jpg
SOI
Monthly Change = +5

http://i33.tinypic.com/5txqmb.jpg
Inverted SOI
Monthly Change = -5

http://i34.tinypic.com/2l95wev.jpg
Global
Monthly Change = +0.002 deg C

http://i37.tinypic.com/1sjlh2.jpg
Northern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = +0.026 deg C

http://i38.tinypic.com/6iuycm.jpg
Southern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = -0.016 deg C

http://i33.tinypic.com/2e3rjtu.jpg
North Atlantic (0 to 75N, 70W to 10E)
Monthly Change = -0.013 deg C

http://i37.tinypic.com/j6tvnp.jpg
South Atlantic (0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)
Monthly Change = -0.096 deg C

http://i34.tinypic.com/2v19ljc.jpg
North Pacific (0 to 65N, 90 to 180W) & (0 to 65N, 100 to 180E)
Monthly Change = -0.199 deg C

http://i37.tinypic.com/15wlcgh.jpg
South Pacific (0 to 60S, 70 to 180W) & (0 to 60S, 145 to 180E)
Monthly Change = -0.254 deg C

http://i35.tinypic.com/333bg4z.jpg
Indian Ocean (30N to 60S, 20 to 145E)
Monthly Change = +0.122 deg C

http://i36.tinypic.com/2vkeofd.jpg
Arctic Ocean (65 to 90N)
Monthly Change = +0.03 deg C

http://i38.tinypic.com/ofamvb.jpg
Southern Ocean (60 to 90S)
Monthly Change = +0.009 deg C

SOURCE

Sea Surface Temperature Data is Smith and Reynolds Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST.v2) available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/#climatencdc