RSS MSU TLT Anomalies February 2011 Update and A Look At Version 3.3

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FEBRUARY 2011 UPDATERSS TLT anomalies continue to drop in response to the 2010/2011 La Niña. RSS MSU TLT anomalies are now at 0.051 deg C, Figure 1.
http://i54.tinypic.com/qn4qvm.jpg
Figure 1

RECENT VERSION UPDATE

RSS recently updated their MSU Lower Troposphere Temperature (TLT) anomaly data with a new version, v3.3. This was discussed last month at Watts Up With That? in the post RSS global temp drops, version change adjusts cooler post 1998. At that time, RSS had not described the changes. They now have at their website on their data description webpage.
http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_description.html

Refer to the Version Notes. Here’s what RSS has to say:
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Version Notes
RSS Version 3.3 Channel TLT, TMT, TTS, and TLS – January, 2011
Change from 3.2 to 3.3:

* Additional satellites are now included in the merge. Version 3.2 only used data from one AMSU instrument, NOAA-15. For TLT, TMT, and TLS, Version 3.3 includes data from the AMSU instruments on NOAA-15, AQUA, NOAA-18, and METOP-A. AMSU channel 7 exhibits unexplained drifts in METOP-A, so for TTS, data from METOP-A is not used.

* Comparisons with other AMSU satellites are now used to detemine [sic] the AMSU merging coefficients.

* When merging MSU and AMSU together, the data for each generation of satellites is weighted by the number of satellites with valid data for that month. This has the effect of de-emphasizing MSU data after the advent of the AQUA satellite in June 2002. Since the 2002-2004 period is when there is an unexplained warming drift in MSU channel 2 data from NOAA-14 relative to AMSU data, this change has the effect of lowering the overall warming in TMT and TLT during the post 2002 period.

* The changes also result in a reduction of sampling noise and “orbital striping” for periods when data from more satellites is used.

* Data from NOAA-16 is not used because all 3 channels show unexplained drift throughout it’s [sic] lifetime. NOAA-17 was only operational for a short period of time, thus it’s [sic] data is of little use for climate studies. We plan to begin including data from NOAA-19 after 3 years of operation.
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VERSION COMPARISON
Figure 2 compares the anomaly data and linear trends of the new RSS TLT Version 3.3 to the obsolete Version 3.2. The update lowered the linear trend since 1979 from approximately 1.6 deg C to 1.5 deg C per Century, Figure 2.
http://i52.tinypic.com/16c8lcw.jpg
Figure 2

The difference between the two datasets is shown in Figure 3.
http://i53.tinypic.com/258uqzb.jpg
Figure 3

Figure 4 is a .gif animation that compares the2010 anomaly maps for the new and old versions when using 1979-1980 as the base years. Basically both maps are showing the change in TLT anomalies from the average of the years 1979 and 1980 to the year 2010. The patterns for both datasets are similar, but there are minor changes in the variations.
http://i54.tinypic.com/261bxja.jpg
Figure 4

COMPARISON TO UAH MSU TLT DATA
The linear trends of the RSS version 3.3 and the most recent version of UAH TLT anomaly data (v5.4) are basically the same: 1.47 versus 1.44 deg C per Century. Refer to Figure 5. Note that I’ve switched to KNMI climate Explorer as the source for both datasets, so that I could limit the UAH latitudes to those used by RSS, 70S-82.5N.
http://i51.tinypic.com/2d0xmds.jpg
Figure 5

Figure 6 shows the difference between the two datasets.
http://i52.tinypic.com/iz263m.jpg
Figure 6

And Figure 7 is a gif animation similar to Figure 4, but this compares RSS (v3.3) to UAH (v5.4) TLT anomaly data.
http://i56.tinypic.com/14w3s6w.jpg
Figure 7

THE ENSO-INDUCED STEP CHANGES
I illustrated and discussed the ENSO-induced rises in the RSS MSU TLT anomalies for the data north of 20N in the post RSS MSU TLT Time-Latitude Plots... Show Climate Responses That Cannot Be Easily Illustrated With Time-Series Graphs Alone. I further discussed the likely cause for the upward steps in the post The ENSO-Related Variations In Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) SST Anomalies And Their Impact On Northern Hemisphere Temperatures.

Figure 8 illustrates Volcano-adjusted RSS TLT anomalies north of 20N in “raw” form and smoothed with a 13-month running-average filter. Also included are the period average temperature anomalies of -0.187 for 1979 to 1987, -0.016 for 1988 to 1997, and 0.268 for 1998 to present.
http://i54.tinypic.com/5c0svt.jpg
Figure 8

I adjusted the data for the linear effects of the two major volcanic eruptions, El Chichon and Mount Pinatubo. To determine the scaling factor for the volcanic aerosol proxy, I used a linear regression software tool (Analyse-it for Excel) with global RSS TLT anomalies (v3.3) as the dependent variable and GISS Stratospheric Aerosol Optical Thickness data (ASCII data) as the independent variable. The scaling factor determined was 2.9.

And in Figure 9 the “raw” data has been deleted to help show the ENSO-induced upward steps in this dataset. So the revisions have not changed these to any great extent, so I won't go back and update the earlier posts.
http://i52.tinypic.com/15p4uia.jpg
Figure 9

SOURCES
The following are links to the data use to create Figures 1, 2, and 3.
RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_2.txt
RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt

All other data were downloaded, and the maps were created, using the KNMI Climate Explorer Monthly observations webpage.

(Many thanks to Dr. Geert Jan van Oldenborgh of KNMI for the quick update to RSS TLT version 3.3.)

February 2011 SST Anomaly Update

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at February 2011 SST Anomaly Update

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MONTHLY SST ANOMALY MAP

The map of Global OI.v2 SST anomalies for February 2011 downloaded from the NOMADS website is shown below.

http://i51.tinypic.com/14dkbar.jpg
February 2011 SST Anomalies Map (Global SST Anomaly = +0.098 deg C)

MONTHLY OVERVIEW
Monthly NINO3.4 SST anomalies have risen from their ENSO season low, heralding the start of the end of this La Niña. The Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly is -1.24 deg C.

The SST anomalies in most ocean basins rose this month. This is likely as response to the ebbing of the La Niña. The Arctic, North Atlantic, and East Indian-West Pacific are the exceptions; the SST anomalies there rose. The result was no change in Northern Hemisphere SST anomalies, and an increase in Southern Hemisphere data, for an increase in global SST anomalies (+0.031 deg C). They are presently at +0.098 deg C.
http://i54.tinypic.com/2v2basl.jpg
(1) Global
Monthly Change = +0.031 deg C
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http://i52.tinypic.com/34pfck5.jpg
(2) NINO3.4 SST Anomaly
Monthly Change = +0.349 deg C

THE EAST PACIFIC VERSUS THE REST OF THE WORLD
As noted in the post Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – East Pacific Versus The Rest Of The World, I have added these two datasets to the monthly updates. Both datasets have been adjusted for the impacts of volcanic aerosols, and both are smoothed with 13-month running-average filters to reduce the seasonal noise. The global oceans were divided into these two subsets to illustrate two facts. First, the linear trend of the volcano-adjusted East Pacific (90S-90N, 180-80W) SST anomalies since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 dataset is basically flat, with a linear trend of only 0.08 deg C per Century.
http://i51.tinypic.com/1ik0w6.jpg
(3) Volcano-Adjusted East Pacific (90S-90N, 180-80W)

And second, the volcano-adjusted SST anomalies for the Rest of the World (90S-90N, 80W-180) rise in very clear steps, in response to the significant 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño/La Niña events. It also appears as though the SST anomalies of this dataset are making another shift in response to the most recent ENSO event.
http://i51.tinypic.com/ofr67s.jpg
(4) Volcano-Adjusted Rest of the World (90S-90N, 80W-180)

EAST INDIAN-WEST PACIFIC
The SST anomalies in the East Indian and West Pacific took a major nose dive this month.

I’ve added this dataset in an attempt to draw attention to what appears to be the upward steps in response to significant El Niño events that are followed by La Niña events.
http://i54.tinypic.com/dpd4k3.jpg
(5) East Indian-West Pacific (60S-65N, 80E-180)
Monthly Change = -0.005 deg C

Further information on the upward “step changes” that result from strong El Niño events, refer to my posts from a year ago Can El Niño Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1 and Can El Niño Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2

And for the discussions of the processes that cause the rise, refer to More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 2 – La Niña Events Recharge The Heat Released By El Niño Events AND...During Major Traditional ENSO Events, Warm Water Is Redistributed Via Ocean Currents -AND- More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 3 – East Indian & West Pacific Oceans Can Warm In Response To Both El Niño & La Niña Events

The animations included in post La Niña Is Not The Opposite Of El Niño – The Videos further help explain the reasons why East Indian and West Pacific SST anomalies can rise in response to both El Niño and La Niña events.

NOTE ABOUT THE DATA
The MONTHLY graphs illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 SST anomaly data from December 1981 to February 2011.

MONTHLY INDIVIDUAL OCEAN AND HEMISPHERIC SST UPDATES http://i52.tinypic.com/2mx0qw3.jpg
(6) Northern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = 0.000 deg C
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http://i52.tinypic.com/34taetz.jpg
(7) Southern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = +0.055 deg C
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http://i53.tinypic.com/13ygpia.jpg
(8) North Atlantic (0 to 75N, 78W to 10E)
Monthly Change = -0.119 deg C
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http://i55.tinypic.com/2hncbqq.jpg
(9) South Atlantic (0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)
Monthly Change = +0.210 deg C

Note: I discussed the upward shift in the South Atlantic SST anomalies in the post The 2009/10 Warming Of The South Atlantic. It does not appear as though the South Atlantic will return to the level it was at before that surge, and where it had been since the late 1980s. That is, it appears to have made an upward step and continues to rise. Why? Dunno---yet.

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http://i55.tinypic.com/f2u903.jpg
(10) North Pacific (0 to 65N, 100 to 270E, where 270E=90W)
Monthly Change = +0.042 Deg C
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http://i55.tinypic.com/2zfo4f4.jpg
(11) South Pacific (0 to 60S, 145 to 290E, where 290E=70W)
Monthly Change = +0.014 deg C
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http://i51.tinypic.com/jj5k04.jpg
(12) Indian Ocean (30N to 60S, 20 to 145E)
Monthly Change = +0.027 deg C
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http://i54.tinypic.com/2vsrtyx.jpg
(13) Arctic Ocean (65 to 90N)
Monthly Change = -0.019 deg C
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http://i56.tinypic.com/2lvbu5x.jpg
(14) Southern Ocean (60 to 90S)
Monthly Change = +0.003 deg C

WEEKLY SST ANOMALIES
The weekly NINO3.4 SST anomaly data portray OI.v2 data centered on Wednesdays. The latest weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies are -1.26 deg C.
http://i54.tinypic.com/2vttl49.jpg
(15) Weekly NINO3.4 (5S-5N, 170W-120W)

The weekly global SST anomalies are at +0.115 deg C.
http://i51.tinypic.com/33axt9t.jpg
(16) Weekly Global

SOURCE
The Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (OISST) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).
http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh
or
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – East Pacific Versus The Rest Of The World

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – East Pacific Versus The Rest Of The World

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I will be adding two volcano-adjusted SST anomaly subsets to the monthly updates starting with the February 2011 update. They are the East Pacific, which mimics NINO3.4 SST anomalies, and the Rest of the World, which rises in very clear steps during significant ENSO events.

You may want to bookmark the LINKS TO SST ANOMALY UPDATES for future reference.

INTRODUCTION

I’ve written numerous posts about the upward steps in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies of the East Indian-West Pacific Oceans (60S-65, 80E-180). Many of them are linked at the end if this post under the heading of “Further Discussions”. In an upcoming post, which is a continuation of my Comments On Tamino’s AMO Post, I’ll also be illustrating and discussing similar upward steps in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) data, which are detrended North Atlantic SST data (0-70N, 80W-0). Refer to Figure 1, which is a .gif animation. As illustrated, ENSO- and Volcano-adjusted AMO data rise in steps during the transitions from El Niño to La Niña, but between the upward steps, they mimic the inverted NINO3.4 SST anomalies.
http://i56.tinypic.com/2repfo0.jpg
Figure 1

Similar upward steps can also be illustrated if we divide the global oceans into two subsets so that one of them contains both the North Atlantic and the East Indian-West Pacific datasets. The two subsets, Figure 2, are the East Pacific Ocean (90S-90N, 180W-80W) and the Rest Of The World (90S-90N, 80W-180E), the latter of the two containing the North Atlantic and East Indian-West Pacific datasets. As we shall see, the East Pacific SST anomalies mimic the variations of ENSO proxies, with little trend, while the SST anomalies of the Rest of the World rise in very clear steps that coincide with the 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño events.
http://i53.tinypic.com/141qcyd.jpg
Figure 2

ACCOUNTING FOR THE IMPACTS OF VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
I’ll be removing the linear effects of the two major volcanic eruptions, El Chichon and Mount Pinatubo, from the two SST datasets. To determine the scaling factor for the volcanic aerosol proxy, I used a linear regression software tool (Analyse-it for Excel) with global SST anomalies as the dependent variable and GISS Stratospheric Aerosol Optical Thickness data (ASCII data) as the independent variable. The scaling factor determined was 1.431. This equals a global SST anomaly impact of approximately 0.2 deg C for the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption. Refer to Figure 3. I’ll use that scaling factor for the East Pacific and Rest of the World datasets.
http://i55.tinypic.com/33acpwp.jpg
Figure 3

EAST PACIFIC
As shown in Figure 4, the Volcano-adjusted East Pacific SST anomalies vary in concert with the scaled NINO3.4 SST anomalies. There are periodic divergences, but the variations in the East Pacific SST anomalies mimic the commonly used ENSO proxy.
http://i53.tinypic.com/2zi4ig2.jpg
Figure 4

The linear trend for the East Pacific SST anomalies since November 1981 is basically flat, at only 0.08 deg C per Century. Refer to Figure 5.
http://i56.tinypic.com/1565ldz.jpg
Figure 5

This obviously means the rise in the global SST anomalies since the start if this satellite-based SST dataset must occur outside of the East Pacific.

REST OF THE WORLD

Figure 6 compares the SST anomalies and the linear trends of the East Pacific and the Rest Of the World. Since November 1981, the SST anomalies of the Rest of the World (90S-90N, 80W-180) have risen at a rate of approximately 1.01 deg C per Century, while the trend of the East Pacific SST anomalies is only 0.08 deg C per Century.
http://i55.tinypic.com/2mxh9pf.jpg
Figure 6

The East Pacific data used in this post represent approximately 33% of the global ocean surface area. (The percentage is based on the NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2 “Land Mask” data available through the KNMI Climate Explorer.) So we can place the two datasets in perspective by scaling the East Pacific data by a factor of 0.5. Refer to Figure 7. Notice how flat the Rest of the World SST anomalies are after the 1997/98 upward shift. There are some minor fluctuations, but the Rest of the World SST anomalies are essentially flat until 2009/10. Backing up in time, the same could be said for the period from 1987/88 and 1997/98; the volcano-adjusted Rest of the World data also have not risen over that period.
http://i55.tinypic.com/15hgy0j.jpg
Figure 7

Adding period-average values to the Rest Of The World SST anomalies, Figure 8, makes the upward steps stand out even more. It will be interesting to see where the “July 2009 to Present” SST anomaly average settles out, if it does before the next significant El Niño drives them higher.
http://i51.tinypic.com/1zmf3ev.jpg
Figure 8

CLOSING NOTE

In a recent discussion at another blog (I believe it was a discussion of the adjusted AMO data in Figure 1.), an AGW proponent noted that upward shifts in SST anomalies did not disprove the hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming.

As illustrated in this post, the SST anomalies of the East Pacific Ocean, or approximately 33% of the surface area of the global oceans, have risen very little since 1982. And between upward shifts, the trends of the SST anomalies for the rest of the world (67% of the global ocean surface area) remain flat. What processes could cause anthropogenic global warming to work only during the significant El Niño events of 1986/87/88, 1997/98 and 2009/10?

SOURCES
SST anomaly data is available through the NOAA NOMADS website:
http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh
or:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite

The GISS Global Stratospheric Aerosol Optical Thickness data is available here:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/strataer/tau_line.txt

FURTHER INFORMATION

My first detailed posts on the multiyear aftereffects of ENSO events are:
Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1
And:
Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2
And:
Supplement To “Can El Nino Events Explain All Of The Warming Since 1976?”
And:
Supplement 2 To “Can El Nino Events Explain All Of The Warming Since 1976?”

And for those who like visual aids, refer to the two videos included in:
La Niña Is Not The Opposite Of El Niño – The Videos.

The impacts of these El Nino events on the North Atlantic are discussed in:
There Are Also El Nino-Induced Step Changes In The North Atlantic
And:
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Data

As noted earlier, I’ve also written a rebuttal post to Tamino’s AMO Post. I hope to have a new post on the North Atlantic posted in a few weeks.

The posts related to the effects of ENSO on Ocean Heat Content are here:
ENSO Dominates NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Data
And:
North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Is Governed By Natural Variables

More detailed technical discussions can be found here:
More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO – Part 1 – El Nino Events Warm The Oceans
And:
More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 2 – La Nina Events Recharge The Heat Released By El Nino Events AND...During Major Traditional ENSO Events, Warm Water Is Redistributed Via Ocean Currents.
And:
More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 3 – East Indian & West Pacific Oceans Can Warm In Response To Both El Nino & La Nina Events