Climate Studies Misrepresent The Effects Of El Nino And La Nina Events

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Climate Studies Misrepresent The Effects Of El Nino And La Nina Events

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INTRODUCTIONI posted my first YouTube video on the subject of The Lingering Effects of the 1997/98 El Nino about one year ago. Since then, many of my posts have dealt with the multiyear aftereffects of strong El Nino events (and the subsequent La Nina events), and about the dominant impacts of those ENSO events on the gradual increase in global temperature record since 1975. Anthony Watts of the popular science blog WattsUpWithThat has graciously co-posted many of them, and through those posts, I have reached a much larger audience. With hope of reaching an even broader group of persons interested in Global Warming, I have produced two more videos that now appear on YouTube. The videos titled Climate Studies Misrepresent The Effects Of El Nino And La Nina Events, Parts 1 and 2, start with a reference to the ClimateGate emails. That email was written by Phil Jones of the CRU and refers to one of my guest posts at WattUpWithThat. I’ve tagged the new videos with ClimateGate and Climate-Gate with hope of attracting viewers interested in the CRU emails--to illustrate that climate studies misrepresent the effects of El Nino events, and by doing so, the authors of those papers overestimate the impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

NEW VIDEOS

Climate Studies Misrepresent The Effects Of El Nino And La Nina Events
Part 1


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tepm1w-og40
YouTubeLink
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Climate Studies Misrepresent The Effects Of El Nino And La Nina Events
Part 2



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BAp_gp32CM
YouTubeLink

LINKS TO FURTHER DISCUSSIONS
The post referenced in the ClimateGate email is:
“Thompson et al (2009) - High-Tech Wiggle Matching Helps Illustrate El Nino-Induced Step Changes”.
The co-post at WattsUpWithThat is here:
A look at the Thompson et al paper – hi tech wiggle matching and removal of natural variables

The first detailed posts on the multiyear aftereffects of El Nino events are:
Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1
And:Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2
And:
Supplement To “Can El Nino Events Explain All Of The Warming Since 1976?”
And:
Supplement 2 To “Can El Nino Events Explain All Of The Warming Since 1976?”


The impacts of these El Nino events on the North Atlantic are discussed in:
There Are Also El Nino-Induced Step Changes In The North Atlantic
And:
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Data


The Lower Troposphere Temperature (TLT) anomaly responses are discussed in:
RSS MSU TLT Time-Latitude Plots... Show Climate Responses That Cannot Be Easily Illustrated With Time-Series Graphs Alone
And:
El Ninos Create Step Changes in TLT of the Northern Hemisphere Mid Latitudes

In addition to the “Wiggle Matching” post, the misrepresentation of ENSO in climate studies are discussed in the following (The discussions are similar but there are differences in the presentation):
The Relationship Between ENSO And Global Surface Temperature Is Not Linear
And:Multiple Wrongs Don’t Make A Right, Especially When It Comes To Determining The Impacts Of ENSO
And:Regression Analyses Do Not Capture The Multiyear Aftereffects Of Significant El Nino Events.”

The posts related to the effects of ENSO on Ocean Heat Content are here:
ENSO Dominates NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Data
And:
North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Is Governed By Natural Variables

More detailed technical discussions can be found here:
More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO – Part 1 – El Nino Events Warm The Oceans
And:
More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 2 – La Nina Events Recharge The Heat Released By El Nino Events AND...During Major Traditional ENSO Events, Warm Water Is Redistributed Via Ocean Currents.
And:
More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 3 – East Indian & West Pacific Oceans Can Warm In Response To Both El Nino & La Nina Events

WATTS UPWITHTHAT VERSIONS

Many of the above posts have been co-posted at WattsUpWithThat. I’ve also provided links to them for those interested in reviewing the comments.

Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1
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Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2
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Multiple Wrongs Don’t Make A Right on ENSO Impacts

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Why regression analysis fails to capture the aftereffects of El Nino events
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ENSO Dominates NODC Ocean Heat Content Data

A Look At The Individual Proxies Used In Kaufman et al (2009)

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at A Look At The Individual Proxies Used In Kaufman et al (2009)

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On its publication in September 2009, Kaufman et al (2009) “Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling” made its rounds in blogs.

The abstract reads, “The temperature history of the first millennium C.E. is sparsely documented, especially in the Arctic. We present a synthesis of decadally resolved proxy temperature records from poleward of 60°N covering the past 2000 years, which indicates that a pervasive cooling in progress 2000 years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age. A 2000-year transient climate simulation with the Community Climate System Model shows the same temperature sensitivity to changes in insolation as does our proxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long-term trend was caused by the steady orbitally driven reduction in summer insolation. The cooling trend was reversed during the 20th century, with four of the five warmest decades of our 2000-year-long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000.”

A BBC News article “Arctic 'warmest in 2,000 years'”…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8236797.stm
…included the following graph:

http://i45.tinypic.com/2dcahd3.gif
Kaufman et al Graph In BBC Article

KAUFMAN et al PROXY DATA IS AVAILABLE FROM THE NOAA PALEOCLIMATOLOGY PROGRAM

NOAA Paleoclimatology Program includes a webpage for Kaufman et al (2009):
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/kaufman2009/kaufman2009.html

Toward the bottom of the page is a link to a spreadsheet that includes the standardized data of the 23 individual proxies included in Kaufman et al (2009):
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/reconstructions/arctic/kaufman2009arctic.xls

The last column (Column Y) in the spreadsheet is the average of the standardized proxies, which I’ve plotted below. Though the scales are obviously different, the curves of the BBC graph and the Average of the Standardized Proxies are similar in shape, a few minor differences, but they are similar.
http://i50.tinypic.com/2ptdpuv.png
Average Of Kaufman et al Standardized Proxies
The differences may reflect the October 2009 corrections made to 7 of the 23 proxies by Kaufman et al (noted in the spreadsheet). They included:
"October 2009 Update
"Record 2 was revised using the correct time scale of McKay et al. (S16)
"Record 12 was revised to omit the high-pass filter used by Andersen et al. (S25)
"Record 20 was corrected to reflect the interpretation of Tijander et al. (S32) that X-ray density is related inversely to temperature
"Record 21 was corrected to reflect the interpretation of Haltia-Hovi et al. (S33) that varve thickness is related inversely to temperature
"Records 3 and 10 were revised to correct rounding errors
"Record 19 was truncated at 1799 to exclude the 1805 bin, which was based on only one year (1800)"

In some respects, a spaghetti graph of the 23 proxies shows the same basic curve, but at least one of the proxies had higher values 2000 years ago and others appear to be dropping, not rising, in recent years.
http://i49.tinypic.com/4h9u6x.png
Spaghetti Graph Of Kaufman et al Standardized Proxies

That prompted me to plot the individual proxies to see what they revealed.

GRAPHS OF INDIVIDUAL PROXIES

The following are graphs of the 23 proxies used in Kaufman et al. There is a classic hockey stick, Proxy 22, which is a graph of the Briffa et al Yamal tree ring data. There’s also a reverse hockey stick, Proxy 12, which is the Andersen et al DYE3 South Greenland Ice Isotope data, where the upward blade is in the first few decades; then the curve remains relatively flat for the remainder of the term. Some of the datasets illustrate warmer temperatures in recent decades, Proxies 9 and 23. There are others that are relatively flat but there are many others that show warmer temperatures in centuries past. The graphs of the individual proxies follow, without commentary. The titles include the location, proxy type, author(s), and years covered.
http://i46.tinypic.com/120m4pe.png
Proxy 1
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http://i49.tinypic.com/o7vs51.png
Proxy 2
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http://i47.tinypic.com/1h6n9c.png
Proxy 3
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http://i50.tinypic.com/jtthtc.png
Proxy 4
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http://i47.tinypic.com/jpeura.png
Proxy 5
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http://i46.tinypic.com/35nbr85.png
Proxy 6
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http://i48.tinypic.com/aff40k.png
Proxy 7
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http://i48.tinypic.com/1pxb4p.png
Proxy 8
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http://i48.tinypic.com/2nki4g7.png
Proxy 9
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http://i48.tinypic.com/21kz8ye.png
Proxy 10
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http://i45.tinypic.com/2usfjp4.png
Proxy 11
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http://i48.tinypic.com/mx259k.png
Proxy 12
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http://i45.tinypic.com/2d77eih.png
Proxy 13
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http://i50.tinypic.com/34gn888.png
Proxy 14
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http://i50.tinypic.com/2qlgylx.png
Proxy 15
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http://i48.tinypic.com/eia1hj.png
Proxy 16
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http://i50.tinypic.com/xc3ipg.png
Proxy 17
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http://i48.tinypic.com/2mhv2xg.png
Proxy 18
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http://i47.tinypic.com/21kw4r8.png
Proxy 19
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http://i49.tinypic.com/24yn7nt.png
Proxy 20
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http://i45.tinypic.com/2eqevb8.png
Proxy 21
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http://i50.tinypic.com/2daej3b.png
Proxy 22
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http://i45.tinypic.com/2cnvbcy.png
Proxy 23

CLOSING
Viewed individually, the proxies do not necessarily illustrate “that a pervasive cooling in progress 2000 years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age,” or that the “cooling trend was reversed during the 20th century, with four of the five warmest decades of our 2000-year-long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000.” Many of the proxies illustrate past temperatures rivaling or exceeding current temperatures and indicate long-term variability, not a long-term decline or pervasive cooling.
UPDATE 12-17-09: I modified the closing sentence with the addition of ...and indicate long-term variability, not a long-term decline or pervasive cooling.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index Reconstruction

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index Reconstruction

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INTRODUCTION

The Climate Reconstruction webpage…
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/recons.html…
of the NOAA Paleoclimatology Program and World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder contains a number of multi-century SST anomaly reconstructions. Though I posted the AMO reconstruction dataset in an earlier thread, SST Reconstructions, I thought it deserved an individual post. So what I’ve done in the following is presented the write-up provided by NOAA, with graphs trailing.

A link to the paper:
http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/files/norock/products/GCC/GeophysResLetters_Gray_04.pdf

NOTE

Keep in mind that the AMO Reconstruction data presented at the end of this post is not the same as the AMO presented by the NOAA ESRL. The NOAA ESRL AMO data is detrended North Atlantic SST data. The long-term reconstruction of the AMO has not been detrended. It is “the 10-yr moving average of annual SSTA values. Values are reported as standard deviations.”

NOAA WRITE-UP
Link:
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/amo-gray2004.txt

NAME OF DATA SET: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Index Reconstruction

LAST UPDATE: 10/2004 (Original Receipt by WDC Paleo)

CONTRIBUTORS: Stephen Gray and Julio Betancourt, USGS Desert Laboratory; Lisa Graumlich and Greg Pederson, Big Sky Institute, Montana State University.

IGBP PAGES/WDCA CONTRIBUTION SERIES NUMBER: 2004-062

SUGGESTED DATA CITATION: Gray, S.T., et al.. 2004.Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Index Reconstruction.IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series #2004-062. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA.

ORIGINAL REFERENCE: Gray, S.T., L.J. Graumlich, J.L. Betancourt, and G.T. Pederson. 2004.
A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D. Geophysical Research Letters, 31:L12205, doi:10.1029/2004GL019932.

ABSTRACT:

We present a tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which demonstrates that strong, low-frequency (60–100 yr) variability in basin-wide (0–70°N) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has been a consistent feature of North Atlantic climate for the past five centuries. Intervention analysis of reconstructed AMO indicates that 20th century modes were similar to those in the preceding ~350 yr, and wavelet spectra show robust multidecadal oscillations throughout the reconstruction. Though the exact relationships between low-frequency SST modes, higher frequency (~7–25 yr) atmospheric modes (e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation), and terrestrial climates must still be resolved, our results confirm that the AMO should be considered in assessments of past and future Northern Hemisphere climates.

GEOGRAPHIC REGION: North Atlantic Ocean (0-70º N)

PERIOD OF RECORD: 1567-1990 AD

FUNDING SOURCES: National Science Foundation (USA), U.S. Geological Survey.

DESCRIPTION:

Reconstruction of North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index based on tree ring chronologies from eastern North America, western Europe, Scandinavia and the Middle East.

These data represent a tree-ring based reconstruction of annual sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) for the North Atlantic Ocean (0-70º) and a reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index derived from these SSTA values. The AMO is the leading mode of low frequency, North Atlantic SST variability. Over the instrumental period (1856-Present) the AMO exhibited a 65-80 yr cycle (0.4 º C range), with warm phases at roughly 1860-1880 and 1930-1960 and cool phases during 1905-1925 and 1970-1990. The AMO appears to have returned to a warm phase beginning in the mid 1990s.

The AMO has been linked to multi-year precipitation anomalies over North America, and appears to modulate the strength of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections over large portions of the Northern Hemisphere. Multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic is also thought to play a role in Atlantic hurricane formation, rainfall over the Caribbean and northeastern Brazil, African drought frequency, and winter temperatures in Europe. Instrumental observations capture only two full cycles of the AMO, so a need exists for developing proxies to assess low-frequency North Atlantic SST variations and their climatic effects.

These SSTA and AMO reconstructions span the period from A.D. 1567 to 1990 and were developed using 12 tree-ring records from eastern North America, western Europe, Scandinavia, and the Middle East. We first reconstructed annual SSTA values for the North Atlantic and then smoothed this time series with a 10-yr moving average to produce the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index. Correlations between the observed and reconstructed SSTA and AMO values were high (r = 0.64 and 0.81, respectively) and numerous tests confirmed that the model has significant skill in predicting SSTA values.

GRAPHS

http://i48.tinypic.com/241ml5g.png
North Atlantic SST Reconstruction
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http://i47.tinypic.com/ekkhuc.pngAMO Reconstruction “The AMO index is the 10-yr moving average of annual SSTA values. Values are reported as standard deviations”