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Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Mid-January 2011 SST Anomaly Update

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Mid-January 2011 SST Anomaly Update
This mid-month update only includes the shorter-term NINO3.4 and global SST anomaly graphs; that is, the ones from January 2004 to present. Both the NINO3.4 and Global SST anomalies have dropped.

As noted in the November 2010 SST Anomaly Update, the global SST anomalies do not appear as though they will drop to the level they had reached during the 2007/08 La Niña, even if one were to account for the differences in NINO3.4 SST anomalies. This of course will be raised by alarmists as additional proof of anthropogenic global warming.

But the reason the global SST anomalies have warmed in that time is due primarily to the fact that the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans (about 25% of the surface area of the global oceans) can warm in response to both El Niño and La Niña events. Refer to Can El Niño Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1 and Can El Niño Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2, and the video included in La Niña Is Not The Opposite Of El Niño – The Videos.

Keep in mind, the warm water released from below the surface of the Pacific Warm Pool doesn’t simply vanish at the end of the El Niño.


NINO3.4 SST anomalies for the week centered on January 12, 2011 show that central equatorial Pacific SST anomalies have dropped in the past two weeks. They cycled back down to near their earlier low for this La Niña season. They’re at approximately -1.8 deg C.

NINO3.4 SST Anomalies - Short-Term

Weekly Global SST anomalies have dropped to a new seasonal low, but they are far from the low reached during the 2007/08 La Niña. They are presently at +0.04 deg C.
Global SST Anomalies - Short-Term

OI.v2 SST anomaly data is available through the NOAA NOMADS system:


kuhnkat said...

Bob, the global short term sst anomalies video is missing.

Bob Tisdale said...

kuhnkat, thanks. Fixed it. I wonder where it disappeared to

kuhnkat said...

It's probably looking for Trenberth's missing energy.

aaaaa said...

"This of course will be raised by alarmists as additional proof of anthropogenic global warming."

not helped of course by skeptics widely promoting the opposite of what will happen. You are one of the very few skeptics not predicting global cooling/flatness. When the step change upward does become apparent in hindsight there is going to be some very interesting realigning of positions going on online.

HR said...


I get a sense from your post that you think the La Nina is running out of steam? I put together a graph of global temp, global SST and Nino3.4(scaled) going back to 1995.


If things follow the path of the 1998/1999 El Nino/La Nina transition then there's still another 4,5 or more months of falling SST and SAT. We could only be half way through the full effect of this La Nina on global temperatures.

Anonymous said...

Interestingly a couple of cyclones have finally developed in the west pacific/coral sea areas.
I'm guessing these will cool SSTs a little in those areas.

I also believe the 3.4 index will drop further, but that's just an opinion.

Baa Humbug


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