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Tuesday, July 6, 2010

June 2010 SST Anomaly Update

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at June 2010 SST Anomaly Update

The map of Global OI.v2 SST anomalies for June 2010 downloaded from the NOMADS website is shown below. The central equatorial Pacific SST anomalies have decreased to the threshold of a La Niña.
June 2010 SST Anomalies Map (Global SST Anomaly = +0.26 deg C)


Monthly NINO3.4 SST anomalies have reached the threshold of a La Niña, which is -0.5 deg C. The central tropical Pacific (Monthly NINO3.4) SST Anomaly is -0.5 deg C, while weekly data has fallen well into La Niña ranges (-0.62 deg C).

Global SST anomalies have hesitated this month in their decline, but a glimpse at the weekly global data I posted last week reveals that the decline will continue next month. Refer to PRELIMINARY June 2010 SST Anomaly Update . The reason global SST anomalies stalled in their response to the drop in NINO3.4 SST anomalies is the decline in the Southern Hemisphere (-0.031 deg C) was less than the rise in the Northern Hemisphere (+0.049 deg C). Both the North Atlantic and North Pacific SST anomalies rose, with the larger rise in the North Pacific.
Monthly Change = +0.004 deg C
NINO3.4 SST Anomaly
Monthly Change = -0.41 deg C


The SST anomalies in the East Indian and West Pacific continue their decrease also. Will they rise, noticeably, in response to a La Niña as they have in the past?

I’ve added this dataset in an attempt to draw attention to what appears to be the upward step responses. Using the 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño events as references, East Indian-West Pacific SST Anomalies peak about 7 to 9 months after the peak of the NINO3.4 SST anomalies, so we shouldn’t expect any visible sign of a step change for almost 18 to 24 months. We’ll just have to watch and see.
East Indian-West Pacific (60S-65N, 80E-180)
Monthly Change = +0.109 deg C

Further information on the upward “step changes” that result from strong El Niño events, refer to my posts from a year ago Can El Niño Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1 and Can El Niño Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2

And for the discussions of the processes that cause the rise, refer to More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 2 – La Niña Events Recharge The Heat Released By El Niño Events AND...During Major Traditional ENSO Events, Warm Water Is Redistributed Via Ocean Currents -AND- More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 3 – East Indian & West Pacific Oceans Can Warm In Response To Both El Niño & La Niña Events

The animations included in post La Niña Is Not The Opposite Of El Niño – The Videos further help explain the reasons why East Indian and West Pacific SST anomalies can rise in response to both El Niño and La Niña events.


The MONTHLY graphs illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 SST anomaly data from November 1981 to June 2010.

Northern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = +0.049 deg C
Southern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = -0.031 deg C
North Atlantic (0 to 75N, 78W to 10E)
Monthly Change = +0.027 deg C
South Atlantic (0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)
Monthly Change = +0.004 deg C

Note: I discussed the upward shift in the South Atlantic SST anomalies in the post The 2009/10 Warming Of The South Atlantic.

North Pacific (0 to 65N, 100 to 270E, where 270E=90W)
Monthly Change = +0.089 Deg C
South Pacific (0 to 60S, 145 to 290E, where 290E=70W)
Monthly Change = -0.031 deg C
Indian Ocean (30N to 60S, 20 to 145E)
Monthly Change = -0.041 deg C
Arctic Ocean (65 to 90N)
Monthly Change = +0.030 deg C
Southern Ocean (60 to 90S)
Monthly Change = -0.067 deg C


The weekly NINO3.4 SST anomaly data illustrate OI.v2 data centered on Wednesdays. The latest weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies are -0.62 deg C.
Weekly NINO3.4 (5S-5N, 170W-120W)


The Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (OISST) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).


Ron Broberg said...

I didn't see a reply to this at Lucia's, so I'm reposting it here. Just FYI, I am unable to access your comment page from work.


Bob: Do you have the ability to mask the LST data on the GISTEMP combined product (1200km radius smoothing) so that the GISS-adjusted SST data can be compared to the source SST data?
Wanna trade?
I have a file with ocean only data from the SBBX.HadR2 as used in GISTEMP formatted as a netcdf file. The SBBX.HadR2 file is downloaded from the GISTEMP ftp server. In GISTEMP step5, the SBBX.HadR2 file is combined with the land station SBBX file to produce the land+sea surface file (which is a BX file). I also found a file to create netcdf files from the SBBX files. (BTW, SBBX means “sub-box”). This files has a flag for ‘land only, ‘sea only’ or ‘combined.’ I used the ‘sea only’ to generate the netcdf.
I did a quick spot check of a couple of dates and they seem to be a vague match to the ‘sea only’ data in the GISTEMP web mapper. But the color schemes differ, so it’s hard to tell by eyeball. You can find the 300 meg file here, since its so large, I’ll probably pull the file down in a day or two. Hope it helps
http://rhinohide.cx/co2/gistemp/201007/ gistemp.nc
Now in trade, does someone have an R-code graphing utility for netcdf map data?

Bob Tisdale said...

Ron: Sorry. Didn't see a question to me over at Lucia's. What thread?

With respect to your offer to trade, I wouldn't know an "R-code graphing utility for netcdf map data" if it came up and bit me. Sorry. If Geert Jan's Climate Explorer didn't exist, I'd be out of luck.


Tips are now being accepted.

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