I’ve moved to WordPress. This post can now be found at Sorry About The Lack of Posts#####################
But I had company in over the weekend and I’ve been in a debate over at Deltoid on their Another correction to Duffy thread for the last day or so. It started at comment #16 with cohenite dropping my name. My first comment, #37, comes back to me a number of times, from a number of directions. In case the above link doesn’t work, here’s where I’ve been.
I’m holding my own there--I think. No one there wants to explain why a running total of the Trenberth NINO3.4 data, scaled to global temperature with a coefficient from another Trenberth paper, not only mimics the global temperature anomaly curve, but also correlates well with it. Lots of stone throwing. No explanantions.
I’ve got at least 6 posts that I’m working on and will start posting again, hopefully, tomorrow.
Bob, quite a discussion. You both got them all in a dither. Getting by the ad homs and ridicule, they made few points against you and Cohers.
CoRev: I'll let some brood and others gloat for tonight. Then I'll be back in the morning.
I think you need to provide an explanation in physical terms of how ENSO has an accumulating impact over many years.
I think you've demonstrated there is a lasting impact in the Western Pacific and perhaps the Indian Ocean but for global temperatures and the rest of the oceans, what would explain an accumulation.
In my mind, the next La Nina after an El Nino just would wipe out the accumulation. Energy transferred to the atmosphere by the oceans escapes to space within a few months in any event.
I note there is a slight increasing trend in the Raw Nino 3.4 region temp series over time. Normally, this trend is taken out of the index values so that it is not confused with the global warming signal.
I had to do this in my monthly temp reconstruction.
When the data is detrended, the total accumulation since 1871 is Zero. All the La Ninas balance out the El Ninos.
Using the detrended data, I was able to get a good match with just lagging the impact by 3 months (80 days is probably the accurate number given that ocean temps lag the solstices etc by 80 days.)
Bill: I still consider this an oddity, but as I commented over at Deltoid:
...what I do also have is SST data and graphics that illustrate that a sizable portion of the global oceans, the Indian Ocean, responds to the full rise in NINO3.4 SST anomaly during major ENSO events, but responds to only a portion of the subsequent La Nina. This reinforces the thought that ENSO creates step changes in global temperature. BTW, I haven’t found a SST data set that works in the opposite way, and I’ve looked. Here are the graphics.
The Indian Ocean response to significant El Ninos:
And the Indian Ocean response to the subsequent La Ninas:
And I also have graphs that illustrate the significant upward step changes in numerous SST subsets due to the 1997/98 El Nino.
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