Sorry for the delay, but NOMADS was off line for a few days early in the week and I got sidetracked with a few other posts.
I’ve elected to eliminate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) updates. At times, NINO3.4 SST anomalies don’t follow the SOI precisely, so the SOI can be misleading with respect to the overall direction of NINO3.4 SST. In its place, I’ve added the weekly Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature (OI.v2 SST) data for the NINO3.4 region.
NINO3.4 SST ANOMALIES BASED ON WEEKLY OI.v2 SST DATA
NINO3.4 SST Anomaly (OI.v2 SST)
MONTHLY ERSST.v2 UPDATES
NINO3.4 SST Anomaly – Monthly Change = +0.187 deg C
Global SST – Monthly Change = +0.056 deg C
Northern Hemisphere – Monthly Change = +0.099 deg C
Southern Hemisphere – Monthly Change = +0.022 deg C
North Atlantic (0 to 75N, 78W to 10E) – Monthly Change = -0.038 deg C
South Atlantic (0 to 60S, 70W to 20E) – Monthly Change = +0.030 deg C
North Pacific (0 to 65N, 90 to 180W) & (0 to 65N, 100 to 180E) –
Monthly Change = +0.145 deg C
South Pacific (0 to 60S, 70 to 180W) & (0 to 60S, 145 to 180E) –
Monthly Change = +0.061 deg C
Indian Ocean (30N to 60S, 20 to 145E) – Monthly Change = +0.010 deg C
Arctic Ocean (65 to 90N) – Monthly Change = +0.302 deg C
Southern Ocean (60 to 90S) – Monthly Change = +0.047 deg C
Smith and Reynolds Extended Reconstructed SST Sea Surface Temperature Data (ERSST.v2) and the Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (OISST) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).
Superb effort, and very fascinating.
If you look at this:
in particular at the atmospheric CO2 graph for 1920 to 1961, (from almost forgotten old data) and then splice on Keeling's Mauna Loa CO2 curve to bring it up to date, I suspect it is fairly similar to the SST graphs you have supplied.
The 1940 peak is there, anyway.
Implication: ocean warming may be releasing CO2 and we may be a bit irrelevant?
Suspect you are right, El Nino is the main driver. For another, perhaps working in tandem, that explains the geography of the main areas of global surface warming as per GISS etc., see
I think deep geomagnetic flux shifts (of core-mantle boundary origin)may be the driver there, simply on the maps match.
Ian Plimer thinks El Nino may be driven by bottom heat. Maybe? Up current in the South Pacific Gyre is the hottest seabed region we have, by seismic velocity data. Get back if so inclined. Anyone else, ditto.
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