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Monday, January 25, 2010

Mid-January 2010 SST Anomaly Update

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Mid-January 2010 SST Anomaly Update
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Weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies for the week centered on January 20, 2010 show a drop of 0.48 deg C over the past four weeks. Presently they’re at 1.45 deg C. It appears the 2009/10 El Nino has peaked. Assuming the 2009/10 El Nino won’t become a multiyear El Nino, the questions now: how quickly will NINO3.4 SST anomalies drop and how severe will the La Nina be?
http://i49.tinypic.com/dfdpjb.png
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies

Refer also to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology ENSO Wrap-Up webpage for other indicators:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Weekly Global SST anomalies are still elevated, but they are 0.07 deg C below the most recent peak that occurred four weeks ago. Will they continue to drop or will there be a lagged rise? Time will tell.
http://i47.tinypic.com/zyejr.png
Global SST Anomalies

SOURCE

OI.v2 SST anomaly data is available through the NOAA NOMADS system:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite=

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Isn't this El NiƱo alike the 1992-1993 one?

Bob Tisdale said...

Anonymous 4:59: Yes. According to Ashok et al (2007) paper “El Nino Modoki and its Possible Teleconnection”...
https://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/publications/modoki-ashok.pdf
...the 1991/92 was an El Nino Modoki event. So is the 2009/10 event. And they both appear to have peaked near to the same temperature.

Adam said...

Hi Bob,
I enjoy these updates (but not the silly interannual variability disproves AGW type posts). I wouldn't be so sure El Nino has peaked. I think we may see a little late winter surprise! In the last few days equatorial Pacific trade winds have weakened in association with the eastward moving MJO phase. The active MJO phase is now centered over the central Pacific where the associated low-level wind anomalies tend to reinforce El Nino. All the global models forecast the MJO signal to become stationary in this location (which hasn't really happened in this El Nino yet). The associated low-level winds in the western Pacific are already beginning to build up a new Kelvin wave (check out the ECMWF ocean analyses) that will move eastward and potentially reinvigorate El Nino. Time will tell, but based on recent trends I think it is too early to be certain we won't see a secondary late season El Nino peak. Thus, I'll be checking your SST updates!

Bob Tisdale said...

Adam: You wrote, "I enjoy these updates (but not the silly interannual variability disproves AGW type posts)."

Glad you enjoy the updates, but there's nothing silly about the other posts. Possibly your AGW opinions and beliefs are so ingrained that they block your ability to fully grasp them.

Regards

hswiseman said...

Bob, it would appear from the graphs that the trough to peak delta in 2008- 2010 is pretty close to that of 1996-1998 (absolute SST's are pretty close too). You had previously done some interesting work on the global temperature step changes that accompany larger el nino events. Would you be willing to predict another step change arising from the current event?

Bob Tisdale said...

hswiseman: You asked, "Would you be willing to predict another step change arising from the current event?" I don't make predictions, but I have placed a graph of the East Indian and West Pacific SST anomalies on the monthly SST updates in anticipation of such a rise.

Link to graph:
http://i49.tinypic.com/25z5y55.png

And here's a link to the most recent monthly update:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/01/december-2009-sst-anomaly-update.html

Regards

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