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Saturday, November 7, 2009

October 2009 ERSST.v3b Global and NINO3.4 SST Anomalies

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at October 2009 ERSST.v3b Global and NINO3.4 SST Anomalies
Just a quick post to illustrate that what I had reported in my post “Preliminary October 2009 OI.v2 SST Anomaly Data Appears To Have An Error” was true—the early OI.v2 data did in fact have an error. The Global ERSST.v3b data does not show the major upswing that was present in the very preliminary OI.v2 data included in that post.
Global SST Anomalies Through October 2009 (ERSST.v3b)

And for those interested, here’s the graph of the NINO3.4 SST anomalies from the same dataset.
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Through October 2009 (ERSST.v3b)

The Global SST anomaly data:
The NINO3.4 anomaly data is listed in the last column:


Anonymous said...


Have you seen this from the Met Office?

"Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions?"


The reason I'm letting you know is that they have plotted "The global mean after the effect of ENSO that has been subtracted"

and they state that:
"El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a strong driver of interannual global mean temperature variations. ENSO and non-ENSO contributions can be separated by the method of Thompson et al. (2008) (Fig. 2.8a). The trend in the ENSO-related component for 1999–2008 is +0.08±0.07°C decade–1, fully accounting for the overall observed trend. The trend after removing ENSO (the "ENSO-adjusted" trend) is 0.00°±0.05°C decade–1, implying much greater disagreement with anticipated global temperature rise."

Since you appear to be the ENSO guy, I'd be interested in your thoughts on this. Personally, I love this later quote:
"Other factors, such as data biases and the effect of the solar cycle (Haigh 2003), may also have contributed, although these results show that it is not essential to invoke these explanations."

Bob Tisdale said...

Anonymous: Yup, I've seen it. In fact I've used the initial quote you used in the thread over at PurePoison with the title "Hot weather proves nothing – place your bets".

The Thompson et al (2008) paper they reference makes the usual error. They assume that the relationship between ENSO and global temperature are linear. They are not.


Adolfo Giurfa said...

El Nino was named as such in the El Nino 1+2 region. Now in that region temperatures are lower than usual and skies cloudy. Chances are that El Nino 3+4 will remain localized there. To be an El Niño it needs to displace southwards the cold humboldt´s current, now at the surface along SA west coast.
Whatever this Nino´s destiny we are watching a Solar Minimum Nino, not seen before.

Bob Tisdale said...

Adolfo: Give this EL Nino a few more weeks to work its way to the NINO1+2 areas. The subsurface anomalies, the Kelvin wave, does not look like it will stall.
Note in the lower animation that the themocline is flattening.

My guess is that this El Nino will peak between the 1986/87/88 and 1972/73 maximum SST anomalies.


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