I’ve moved to WordPress. This post can now be found at Preliminary August 2009 SST Anomalies
###############The preliminary August 2009 data has been posted. Based on the schedule listed in the following FAQ page, the data will not be finalized until August 7.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_analysis/FAQ.html
So here’s a brief early look at the direction the global and NINO3.4 SST anomaly data are headed. Preliminary August 2009 Global SST anomaly data is showing a very slight rise, +0.009 deg C, since July 2009, while NINO3.4 SST anomalies have shown a minor drop. Preliminary August 2009 NINO3.4 SST anomalies are 0.81 deg C, down 0.05 deg C since July. The graphs follow. But first, here’s the preliminary map. The unusual pattern in the North Pacific is losing more of its definition. Refer to my post “The Unusual SST Anomaly Pattern in the Pacific.”
http://i29.tinypic.com/2s6rate.pngPreliminary August 2009 Global SST Anomaly Map
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http://i29.tinypic.com/2dl20kw.pngPreliminary August 2009 Global SST Anomalies
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http://i31.tinypic.com/1zc0s5g.pngPreliminary August 2009 NINO3.4 SST Anomalies
WEEKLY DATA MAP AND GRAPHS
And for those who are watching the global and NINO3.4 SST anomalies more closely, here are the corresponding weekly map and graphs.
Global SST Anomaly Map for the Week Centered on August 26, 2009 ############
http://i29.tinypic.com/2ltfq6c.pngGlobal SST Anomaly Graph for the Week Centered on August 26, 2009
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http://i28.tinypic.com/30hxwsh.pngNINO3.4 SST Anomaly Graph for the Week Centered on August 26, 2009
And here's a link to NOAA's animation of the last 5 weekly SST anomaly maps:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/ani-weekly.html
SOURCE
OI.v2 SST anomaly data is available through the NOAA NOMADS website:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite=
3 comments:
Thanks Bob for all your work, especially recent weeks with all this odd Nino behaviour and NOAA announcements (coincided with a major TV documentary team wanting to do a piece on my book 'Chill' (could we be facing a new Little Ice Age?) and getting cold feet (!)in view of the 'record' warmth!!!). Peter Taylor
Hi Bob -
Any thoughts on when we'll see this El Nino reflected in the UAH/RSS anomalies? It seems like we've jumped up almost 2 degrees celsius in the 3.4 anomaly since the beginning of the year (approximately)
Also, I noticed that the latest week's 3.4 is now above .9 - any thoughts on where we are going?
Thanks as always.
John: You asked, "any thoughts on where we are going?"
I don't like to make predictions. Too many things can influence an El Nino. There isn't a lot of heat stored in the PWP to feed it, but there's an unusual "pocket" of warm water in the eastern Pacific, just north of the equator. Will it feed the El Nino or will it be transported back to the Pacific Warm Pool? I've seen similar "pockets" feed into the equatorial Pacific as a prelude to the 2002/03 El Nino.
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