I’ve moved to WordPress. This post can now be found at March 2009 SST Anomaly Update
###############CORRECTION: The AMO illustration and its description have been corrected to reflect the discussion in The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation - Correcting My Mistake.
MONTHLY SST ANOMALY MAP
The map of Global OI.v2 SST anomalies provided by NOMADS is shown below.
http://i42.tinypic.com/2ms27a1.jpgMarch 2009 SST Anomalies Map
AMO
As noted in A Recent Drop in the AMO, I am adding the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to the monthly update.
http://i39.tinypic.com/o5vps9.jpgAtlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
The AMO ended its sizeable drop in March. The questions are:
-How far will it rebound over the next few months?
-And has the AMO reached its long-term peak and will it continue its decline over the next 25 years, or is this recent drop just another perturbation, albeit a large one?
MONTHLY OVERVIEW
The monthly change (March 2009 Minus February 2009) in Global SST anomalies was approximately +0.025 deg C. NINO3.4 SST anomalies continue to fluctuate near to the threshold of a minor La Nina.
NOTES ABOUT THE DATA
The first NINO3.4 SST anomaly graph illustrates raw WEEKLY OI.v2 SST anomaly data that’s centered on Wednesdays, from January 3, 1990 to March 25, 2009. The rest of the graphs illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 SST anomaly data from November 1981 to March 2009.
NINO3.4 SST ANOMALIES BASED ON WEEKLY OI.v2 SST DATA
http://i41.tinypic.com/2e0mmae.jpgNINO3.4 SST Anomaly (Weekly)
Present Value = -0.545
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MONTHLY OI.v2 SST UPDATES
http://i41.tinypic.com/2u76s0z.jpgNINO3.4 SST Anomaly (Monthly)
Monthly Change = +0.099 deg C
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http://i41.tinypic.com/210njvs.jpgGlobal
Monthly Change = +0.025 deg C
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http://i39.tinypic.com/nn4rpk.jpgNorthern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = -0.031 deg C
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http://i41.tinypic.com/wvsneu.jpgSouthern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = +0.068 deg C
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http://i42.tinypic.com/rirric.jpgNorth Atlantic (0 to 75N, 78W to 10E)
Monthly Change = -0.017 deg C
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http://i42.tinypic.com/v4xzfa.jpgSouth Atlantic (0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)
Monthly Change = +0.126 deg C
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http://i41.tinypic.com/2pow5t0.jpgNorth Pacific (0 to 65N, 100 to 270E, where 270E=90W)
Monthly Change = -0.014 Deg C
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http://i41.tinypic.com/fc38l4.jpgSouth Pacific (0 to 60S, 145 to 290E, where 290E=70W)
Monthly Change = +0.044 deg C
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http://i42.tinypic.com/qspq9e.jpgIndian Ocean (30N to 60S, 20 to 145E)
Monthly Change = +0.047 deg C
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http://i40.tinypic.com/f9fcy1.jpgArctic Ocean (65 to 90N)
Monthly Change = -0.044 deg C
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http://i39.tinypic.com/67uo39.jpgSouthern Ocean (60 to 90S)
Monthly Change = +0.097 deg C
SOURCE
The Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (OISST) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite
4 comments:
Bob, an article by Bratcher and Giese found that "low frequency changes of tropical Pacific temperature lead global surface air temperature changes by about 4 years."
Would it be possible to put together a graph of tropical Pacific SSTs?
Thanks,
DB
Tropical Pacific decadal variability and global warming
www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2002/2002GL015191.shtml
DB: Thanks for the link to the Bratcher paper. I’ll have to see if I can find the full paper somewhere. The following posts cover the tropical Pacific:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/08/tropical-atlantic-indian-and-pacific.html
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/09/tropical-sst-anomalies-revisited.html
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/09/tropical-sst-anomalies-revisited-east.html
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/10/tropical-sst-anomalies-revisited-west.html
Also, you can search my blog. Refer to the upper left-hand corner of the page.
DB: Also refer to the copy of the Bratcher and Giese slide presentation:
http://www.decvar.org/documents/CCR_workshop/bratcher.htm?PHPSESSID=df81bed52419c895efe9135099fb26e9
DB, please don’t include phone numbers and email addresses. I have no way to snip them in blogger (or I haven’t discovered how to do it), so, not knowing what kind of programs read my blog (there’s at least one), I felt I had to delete your comment. Sorry. Next time, please leave the personal info out. Thanks.
You wrote, “Bob, thanks for the slide presentation info. She appears to focus in on the area 10S and about 150W.”
I found slide 9 (the comparison of NINO3 SST anomaly and global temperature) interesting.
WorldClimateReport did a post on the study here:
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/archive/previous_issues/vol8/v8n04/feature1.htm
And CO2Science did a write up here:
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V6/N20/C1.php
Know anyone who can do some statistical analysis?
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/01/wanted-statistical-data-analysis-help.html
You wrote, “I wonder if Ms. Bratcher would be interested in doing a seven-year update? She’s now Amy Wagner at NOAA”
You’ll have to ask her.
I’m still looking for a copy of the full paper to see how they filtered the data to come up with the lags, to see where they got the Southern Ocean subsurface temperature data, and to see what coordinates they used for the Tropical Pacific, see whose SST data they're using, etc.
Looks like an interesting paper. Too bad they’ve got a $9.00 firewall on it.
Regards.
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