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Friday, December 19, 2008

The Lingering Effects of the 1997/98 El Nino

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at The Lingering Effects of the 1997/98 El Nino
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A New Film

UPDATE - I removed the Blogger version of the video and imbedded the YouTube version.
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This film, my second, presents observations about the lingering effects of the 1997/98 El Nino. Its backbone is the animation of Global Sea Surface Height available from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory:
http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery/videos-ssh-movies.html
Specifically, It Was Edited From:
http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery/tiffs/backup/videos/tpj1global.mpeg

It uses that animation and graphs of OI.v2 SST data to illustrate the cause of much of the “Record” warming since 1996, which was a result of the long-lasting impacts of the 1997/98 El Nino on the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans. The reoccurring comparative graphs include:
-Scaled NINO3.4 SST Anomaly, used as reference for timing, and
-East Indian and West Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies.

It ends with comparative graphs of:
-NINO3.4 SST Anomalies VERSUS East Pacific, Atlantic, West Indian Ocean SST Anomalies,
-East Indian and West Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies VERSUS East Pacific, Atlantic, West Indian Ocean SST Anomalies,
-Those Two Data Sets VERSUS Global SST (60S to 65N), and
-Global SST Anomalies VERSUS Global Combined (Land+Sea) Surface Temperature Anomalies.

Copies of the graphs with TinyPic links are below.

The video is presented here in a smaller format than I’d prefer, so I’ve also provided a link to a YouTube copy. It’s larger and can be expanded to full screen. The video is just under 5 minutes in length. It’s longer than I originally planned. And because of its length, I had to shorten the time that some of the narrative remained on screen. Please stop and start, rewind, etc., as needed.

VIDEO


YouTube Link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uv4Xc4D0Dk

The reoccurring graph was the comparative graph of NINO3.4 SST anomalies and SST anomalies for the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans, Figure 1.
http://i41.tinypic.com/m8hf7p.jpg
Figure 1

The second graph was a comparative graph of NINO3.4 SST anomalies and SST anomalies for the East Pacific, Atlantic, and West Indian Oceans, Figure 2.
http://i43.tinypic.com/29zegsp.jpg
Figure 2

The third graph was also a comparative graph. Figure 3 illustrated SST anomalies for the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans and SST anomalies for the East Pacific, Atlantic and West Indian Oceans.
http://i41.tinypic.com/27xqgt4.jpg
Figure 3

Figure 4 illustrated Global SST anomalies, and SST anomalies for the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans, and SST anomalies for the East Pacific, Atlantic and West Indian Oceans.
http://i44.tinypic.com/674ks8.jpg
Figure 4

And last, Figure 5 compared Global SST anomalies and Global Combined (Land PLUS Sea) Surface Temperature Anomalies, actually the Temperature of the Lower Tropospheric (TLT) from MSU AHU.
http://i39.tinypic.com/vxbue.jpg
Figure 5

SOURCE

The NOAA Optimal Interpolated SST Analysis (OI.v2) Data is also available online through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).
Overview:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_analysis/
Instructions for Downloading:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_analysis/OISST_ts.txt

Global Temperature (Temperature of the Lower Troposphere) anomaly data is available through the National Space Science & Technology Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville website, specifically:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt

2 comments:

Bill Illis said...

This is really good, Bob.

What kind of a lag model would we need to use to account for this lasting impact (given the impact is longer for the West Pacific and East Indian oceans but more immediate for the rest.)

What about the 1982-83 El Nino? The El Chichon volcano occured in March, April 1982 so it could have impacted the results at that time.

Bob Tisdale said...

Bill: As you noted, volcanoes do have an impact on the aftereffects of El Ninos. And it's significant as far as I can tell. The El Chichon and Mount Pinatubo volcanoes both suppressed El Ninos. Mount Pinatubo may have impacted two, and a small upsurge in between. It appears they change heat distribution patterns of El Ninos in addition to suppressing solar.

I've been trying to write about it for a couple of days, but I put it aside then look at it a day later. Each time, I haven't liked what I've written and decide to start from scratch. I think I'm going to write it as a series of questions and let the readers decide if what I'm seeing makes sense.

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