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Friday, July 25, 2008

Ocean Areas in IPCC TAR Figure 2.9(c) That Warmed From 1946 to 1975 – Part 2 of a 2-Part Series


In the first part of this 2-part series, I discussed the third cell of the IPCC TAR Figure 2.9 and the ocean areas that cooled from 1946 to 1975.

This post, the second and last of the series, will cover those ocean areas that the third cell of IPCC TAR Figure 2.9 shows as having warmed from 1946 to 1975. Refer to Figure 1.
Figure 1


Figure 2 shows seven areas that I isolated for a second look.
Figure 2
The coordinates used were:
Area A = 20 to 35N, 140 to 160W
Area B = 5S to 10N, 40 to 110E
Area C = 10S to 25N, 110 to 140E
Area D = 20 to 45S, 145 to 180W
Area E = 0 to 35S, 50W to 20E
Area F = 20 to 35S, 40 to 75E
Area G = 10 to 40S, 140 to 180E

For those interested in the SSTs for those areas, I’ve prepared Figure 3. The Equatorial Indian Ocean (Area B) and the Pacific Warm Pool (Area C) are warmest, and the Central South Pacific (Area D) is coolest.
Figure 3

Figure 4 is a colorful spaghetti graph of the areas that warmed from 1946 to 1975 according to the IPCC illustration. It covers the period of January 1854 to May 2008. I provided the two vertical black lines to ballpark 1946 and 1975.
Figure 4

In Figure 5, the Equatorial Indian Ocean (Area B) and the Pacific Warm Pool (Area C) SST anomalies are shown from January 1854 to May 2008. Those tropical areas did in fact warm from 1946 to 1975. However, what the IPCC fails to note is that the SST for those areas dropped considerably from the late 19th century to the early 20th.
Figure 5

Figure 6 shows the SST anomalies for the two South Pacific areas (Areas D and G). They also show warming from 1946 to 1975. I found these two curves so interesting, especially the drastic rises in temperature from 1995 to 2001, that I prepared a separate post of the Mid-Latitude South Pacific. Refer to:
Figure 6

Figure 7 shows the SST anomalies from January 1854 to May 2008 for the South Atlantic (Area E) and the South Indian Oceans (Area F). Like the others, both exhibited warming from 1946 to 1975. The sudden rise from 1930 to 1940, then fall from 1940 to 1950, is a curiosity inherent in both oceans. The signals from those two areas are well correlated from 1930 to present, but prior to that time, they diverge.
Figure 7

The final graph, Figure 8, illustrates the SST anomalies from January 1854 to May 2008 for the North Pacific area included in this post. While it does show that the temperature actually cooled from 1946 to 1975, the trend, not illustrated, is actually positive, due to the large drop in SST from 1946 to 1955.
Figure 8


Sea Surface Temperature Data is Smith and Reynolds Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST.v2) available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).

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