In a prior post “Equatorial SST Comparison”, the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (5S to 5N by 80 to 180W) displayed an oscillation that appeared to have an 11-year cycle, a solar signature. Refer to Figure 1, which has been smoothed with an 85-month filter.
http://i30.tinypic.com/5x0um9.jpg
Figure 1
Unfortunately, I haven’t found a TSI reconstruction with monthly data, but the SST anomaly data is monthly, so sunspots will have to do in the initial comparison. Figure 2 illustrates raw and smoothed monthly sunspot data. Note that the smoothing gives the sunspot minimums a curve.
http://i29.tinypic.com/2m4opea.jpg
Figure 2
In Figure 3, the two data sets, Eastern Equatorial Pacific SST Anomaly and Scaled TSI, are compared. I’ve highlighted peaks in the two curves that indicate there may be a correlation if the TSI data set was shifted. This would infer a 30-year+ lag in Eastern Equatorial Pacific to changes in solar irradiance, which could be possible because the Eastern Equatorial Pacific is considered an upwelling point of thermohaline circulation. So let’s shift the TSI data.
http://i31.tinypic.com/24zd5l0.jpg
Figure 3
Figure 4 compares the TSI and Eastern Equatorial Pacific SST Anomaly data sets, with the TSI data shifted 33 years. Considering the amount of noise in the raw SST data and the time span between the two data sets, that’s not a bad correlation. If this lag is correct, the small area of the Pacific Ocean is reacting today to changes in TSI that occurred in 1975.
http://i26.tinypic.com/30iylfk.jpg
Figure 4
There will be those who believe the smoothing creates the appearance of a correlation, when, if fact, none exists. Figure 5 illustrates the raw TSI and East Equatorial Pacific SST anomaly data. Is the correlation still visible in it?
http://i27.tinypic.com/15nqd78.jpg
Figure 5
To compare against TSI, which does have a different basic curve than sunspots, the other alternative is to annualize the SST anomaly data. Refer to Figure 6. The correlation still exists, but the scaling factor used indicates an SST sensitivity much greater than accepted climate sensitivities. Is this a problem? Possibly not, if the surface area of the thermohaline circulation upwelling points is compared to the total oceanic surface area. If these upwelling areas of relatively small area are dissipating the variations in total stored heat of deep water, the signals should be amplified above what would be considered normal for sea surface sensitivity.
http://i26.tinypic.com/i1b52q.jpg
Figure 6
SOURCE
Sea Surface Temperature Data is Smith and Reynolds Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST.v2) available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/#climatencdc
I’ve moved to WordPress: http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
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Blog Archive
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▼
2008
(117)
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▼
June
(19)
- Combined Solar and Volcanic Aerosol Effect – Part 1
- Thermohaline Circulation Upwelling Area SST - Part 1
- El Nino Effects on Global Equatorial SST
- The Common Misunderstanding about the PDO
- Solar Signal in East Equatorial Pacific SST?
- Equatorial SST Comparison
- The Atlantic Ocean
- Smith and Reynolds SST Posts
- Multiple North Pacific Decadal and Multidecadal Os...
- Looking for the Source of ENSO
- Unusual SST Anomaly 1 - South of the Cape of Good ...
- The Unusual Temperature Rise Around 1940
- AMO Versus the Mid-Latitude North Pacific Residual
- Global SST Anomaly Comparison
- Arctic SST
- SST By Latitude
- The Antarctic Peninsula
- The Three PDO Data Sets
- The Chicken or The Egg: PDO or ENSO?
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▼
June
(19)
Comment Policy, SST Posts, and Notes
Comments that are political in nature or that have nothing to do with the post will be deleted.
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The Smith and Reynolds SST Posts DOES NOT LIST ALL SST POSTS. I stopped using ERSST.v2 data for SST when NOAA deleted it from NOMADS early in 2009.
Please use the search feature in the upper left-hand corner of the page for posts on specific subjects.
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NOTE: I’ve discovered that some of the links to older posts provide blank pages. While it’s possible to access that post by scrolling through the history, that’s time consuming. There’s a quick fix for the problem, so if you run into an absent post, please advise me. Thanks.
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If you use the graphs, please cite or link to the address of the blog post or this website.
####
The Smith and Reynolds SST Posts DOES NOT LIST ALL SST POSTS. I stopped using ERSST.v2 data for SST when NOAA deleted it from NOMADS early in 2009.
Please use the search feature in the upper left-hand corner of the page for posts on specific subjects.
####
NOTE: I’ve discovered that some of the links to older posts provide blank pages. While it’s possible to access that post by scrolling through the history, that’s time consuming. There’s a quick fix for the problem, so if you run into an absent post, please advise me. Thanks.
####
If you use the graphs, please cite or link to the address of the blog post or this website.
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