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Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Sorry About The Lack of Posts

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Sorry About The Lack of Posts
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But I had company in over the weekend and I’ve been in a debate over at Deltoid on their Another correction to Duffy thread for the last day or so. It started at comment #16 with cohenite dropping my name. My first comment, #37, comes back to me a number of times, from a number of directions. In case the above link doesn’t work, here’s where I’ve been.
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2008/12/another_correction_to_duffy.php

I’m holding my own there--I think. No one there wants to explain why a running total of the Trenberth NINO3.4 data, scaled to global temperature with a coefficient from another Trenberth paper, not only mimics the global temperature anomaly curve, but also correlates well with it. Lots of stone throwing. No explanantions.

I’ve got at least 6 posts that I’m working on and will start posting again, hopefully, tomorrow.

Regards

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Why Does GISS Use HadISST Data from 1880 to 1981?

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Why Does GISS Use HadISST Data from 1880 to 1981?
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This post was originally titled “Why Does GISS Use HADSST2 Data From 1880 to 1981”. The title and the content of the post were in error. GISS does not use HADSST2 data. As of this correction, GISS uses HADISST from 1880 to November 1981 and the NCDC’s OI.v2 SST data from December 1981 to present.

They clarify the timing of the switch from Hadley Centre to NCDC SST data on their map making page…
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
…where they write,
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+ Hadl/Reyn_v2:SST 1880-present
1880-11/1981: Hadley HadISST1, ship and buoy data (Rayner 2000),
12/1981-present: oisst v2, satellite data (Reynolds-Rayner-Smith 2001)
*****

Prior to the switch to HADISST, GISS had used an NCDC SST dataset for the pre-satellite era. In a 2005 version of their GISS Surface Temperature Analysis webpage available via Wayback…
http://web.archive.org/web/20050914111922/data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
..GISS had noted, “Our analysis includes results for a global temperature index as described by Hansen et al. (1996). The temperature index is formed by combining the meteorological station measurements over land with sea surface temperatures obtained primarily from satellite measurements (Reynolds and Smith, 1994; Smith et al. 1996). Any uses of the temperature index data, i.e., the results including sea surface temperatures, should credit Reynolds and Smith (1994) and Smith et al. (1996).”

So at one time, GISS had used NCDC SST data exclusively. Then they switched to HADISST for the longer term data, but retained the NCDC’s satellite-based OI SST data in recent decades. This is confirmed on the more recent GISTEMP Surface Temperature Analysis webpage…
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
…where GISS describes the GISTEMP data as, “A global temperature index, as described by Hansen et al. (1996), is obtained by combining the meteorological station measurements with sea surface temperatures based in early years on ship measurements and in recent decades on satellite measurements. Uses of this data should credit the original sources, specifically the British HadISST group (Rayner and others) and the NOAA satellite analysis group (Reynolds, Smith and others).”

Why switch to HADISST, or why not switch back to the NCDC SST data when the ERSST.v2 was released in 2004?

The linear trend of the global ERSST.v2 SST data from 1880 to 1981 was 0.024 Deg C/decade, Figure 1, while the HADISST SST anomaly data had a linear trend of 0.032 Deg C/decade. In other words, the HADISST makes the world seem a little bit warmer.
http://i47.tinypic.com/2a4ocqu.png
Figure 1

And why not simply use the HADISST-based data through the entire term of the data, from 1880 to present? In other words, why retain the OI.v2 SST data since 1982 and splice it to the HADISST data? They’re both satellite-based during that period.

The OI.v2 data has a slightly greater trend, 0.095 Deg C/decade versus 0.085 Deg C/decade. Refer to Figure 2.


http://i48.tinypic.com/21ctv2x.png
Figure 2

SOURCE
HADISST, ERSST.v2 and OI.v2 SST data are available through the KNMI Climate Explorer:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

November 2008 SST Update

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at November 2008 SST Update
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UPDATE - December 5, 2008

I've added the NINO3.4 SST anomaly graph based on monthly data back into the list. It follows the NINO3.4 graph based on weekly data.

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All graphs, other than first NINO3.4 SST anomaly graph, illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 SST data from November 1981 to November 2008. The first NINO3.4 SST anomaly graph illustrates raw weekly data that’s centered on Wednesdays, from January 3, 1990 to November 26, 2008.

The monthly change in Global SST anomalies was approximately -0.064 deg C, driven primarily by the Southern Hemisphere. The one-year change since November 2007 was approximately +0.12 deg C, a rebound from the ENSO induced dip last year. Present NINO3.4 SST anomalies are still hovering close to the threshold of a minor La Nina.

GISTEMP is the only data set to use the OI.v2 SST data for the calculation of Global Surface Temperature Anomalies.

NINO3.4 SST ANOMALIES BASED ON WEEKLY OI.v2 SST DATA


http://i37.tinypic.com/246q8h0.jpg
NINO3.4 SST Anomaly (WEEKLY DATA) Present Value = -0.399
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MONTHLY OI.v2 SST UPDATES
http://i35.tinypic.com/r88rib.jpg
NINO3.4 SST Anomaly (MONLTHY DATA) – Monthly Change = +0.077 deg C
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http://i36.tinypic.com/29m6alj.jpg
Global SST – Monthly Change = -0.064 deg C
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http://i38.tinypic.com/2hnp8c0.jpg
Northern Hemisphere – Monthly Change = -0.026 deg C
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http://i35.tinypic.com/mijjoz.jpg
Southern Hemisphere – Monthly Change = -0.094 deg C
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http://i35.tinypic.com/wks3gp.jpg
North Atlantic (0 to 75N, 78W to 10E) – Monthly Change = -0.022 deg C
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http://i35.tinypic.com/im8npe.jpg
South Atlantic (0 to 60S, 70W to 20E) – Monthly Change = -0.086 deg C
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http://i36.tinypic.com/1yp9bc.jpg
North Pacific (0 to 65N, 90 to 180W) & (0 to 65N, 100 to 180E) – No Change
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http://i36.tinypic.com/x5dzzq.jpg
South Pacific (0 to 60S, 70 to 180W) & (0 to 60S, 145 to 180E) –
Monthly Change = -0.071 deg C
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http://i36.tinypic.com/zno5q9.jpg
Indian Ocean (30N to 60S, 20 to 145E) – Monthly Change = -0.111 deg C
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http://i37.tinypic.com/qq92jn.jpg
Arctic Ocean (65 to 90N) – Monthly Change = -0.155 deg C
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http://i35.tinypic.com/ictnjd.jpg
Southern Ocean (60 to 90S) – Monthly Change = -0.113 deg C

SOURCE

The Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (OISST) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/#climatencdc

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Comment Policy, SST Posts, and Notes

Comments that are political in nature or that have nothing to do with the post will be deleted.
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The Smith and Reynolds SST Posts DOES NOT LIST ALL SST POSTS. I stopped using ERSST.v2 data for SST when NOAA deleted it from NOMADS early in 2009.

Please use the search feature in the upper left-hand corner of the page for posts on specific subjects.
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NOTE: I’ve discovered that some of the links to older posts provide blank pages. While it’s possible to access that post by scrolling through the history, that’s time consuming. There’s a quick fix for the problem, so if you run into an absent post, please advise me. Thanks.
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If you use the graphs, please cite or link to the address of the blog post or this website.