tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post8044112820179924059..comments2023-07-29T05:11:23.558-04:00Comments on Climate Observations: Global Temperatures This Decade Will Be The Warmest On Record…Bob Tisdalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-88264639282448344832009-11-16T21:27:01.893-05:002009-11-16T21:27:01.893-05:00Thanks, Frank.Thanks, Frank.Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-11623796009807080112009-11-16T17:34:27.786-05:002009-11-16T17:34:27.786-05:00http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh...http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+003 is the link literally ust the chart of temps t the 7.5 km level and above in the atmosphere.<br />this is an important layer in cloud cover i presumefrank milesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-17829923696509783792009-11-15T18:53:28.082-05:002009-11-15T18:53:28.082-05:00frank miles: I'm a visual person. Do you have...frank miles: I'm a visual person. Do you have a link to a an illustration of the dataset you're referring to?<br /><br />Thanks.<br /><br />RegardsBob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-86306313503521925912009-11-15T15:56:18.581-05:002009-11-15T15:56:18.581-05:00just one point- temps at the 7.5 km level in 1998 ...just one point- temps at the 7.5 km level in 1998 were much much higher, surely this has something to with clod cover or some effect on the possibility of it becoming a realy large el ninofrank milesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-55574156924920990382009-11-12T15:34:25.482-05:002009-11-12T15:34:25.482-05:00Thanks for the link, Robin.Thanks for the link, Robin.Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-87232688544032452422009-11-12T15:12:04.284-05:002009-11-12T15:12:04.284-05:00Bob
I just saw this and thought of you:
http://a...Bob<br /><br />I just saw this and thought of you:<br /><br />http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0477/preprint/2009/pdf/10.1175_2009BAMS2903.1.pdf<br /><br />It's a pre-pub release called:<br />The 1918/1919 El Niño<br /><br />Hope it's useful, haven't read it yet myself.<br /><br />RobinAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-48668105777077167082009-11-12T06:48:05.314-05:002009-11-12T06:48:05.314-05:00John: You asked, “Do you think as the equatorial P...John: You asked, “Do you think as the equatorial Pacific waters spread over the coming weeks/months, global SST temps will move overall upward, countering the seasonal trend, since the NINO SST is also going to be moving up for a few more weeks/months as that heat bubble moves to the surface?”<br /><br />Assuming that Mayon doesn’t explode…<br />http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2009/11/mayon_to_have_significant_erup.php<br />..yes, global SST anomalies will probably rise. How much? Dunno. <br /><br />You asked, “Is a proper analysis that the current Kelvin wave that is fueling the 6c+ bubble anomaly is likely to fade shortly (I'm comparing the length and timing of the waves on the chart) and we'll, at least temporarily, be in the cooling aspect of the wave?”<br /><br />The earlier warm Kelvin waves this year do not necessarily illustrate the future of this one. It would probably be best to compare this El Nino in November to past moderate-to-major El Ninos, but I don’t know if there’s an archive of those Hovmollers. Haven’t looked for it. In looking at the animation of the equatorial cross-section…<br />http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml<br />…the pocket of warm appears to be expanding and increasing in temperature as it travels east. I would suspect the wave will continue east and that the pocket of warm water will rise to the surface. But we shall see.<br /><br />RegardsBob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-27101313462047860112009-11-11T10:39:56.691-05:002009-11-11T10:39:56.691-05:00Sorry, another interpretation question as I try to...Sorry, another interpretation question as I try to better learn the way Ninos operate.<br /><br />In the NOAA presentation (updated on 11/09/09), they have a graph of the Kelvin waves over the course of this El Nino (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf). Page 16 of 37 in the pdf.<br /><br />Is a proper analysis that the current Kelvin wave that is fueling the 6c+ bubble anomaly is likely to fade shortly (I'm comparing the length and timing of the waves on the chart) and we'll, at least temporarily, be in the cooling aspect of the wave? If that is the case, would we see the bubble dissipate, or would it function to cool the waters to the West of the bubble and not the bubble itself?<br /><br />I really want to thank you for introducing me to this topic - it is absolutely fascinating.Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-55735070721696820142009-11-11T09:45:34.131-05:002009-11-11T09:45:34.131-05:00Thanks for the explanation. I appreciate it.
Do ...Thanks for the explanation. I appreciate it.<br /><br />Do you think as the equatorial Pacific waters spread over the coming weeks/months, global SST temps will move overall upward, countering the seasonal trend, since the NINO SST is also going to be moving up for a few more weeks/months as that heat bubble moves to the surface?<br /><br />I wonder about the reaction of those that use the press to consistent SST temps above .3 (on OIv.2) and the beginnings of the "warmest decade" statements.Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-25696250411354659652009-11-10T16:50:38.000-05:002009-11-10T16:50:38.000-05:00John: You asked, "I notice from the Nov. 4th ...John: You asked, "I notice from the Nov. 4th OI v.2 data that both the northern and southern hempispheres continue to have dropping SST anomalies outside the 20S to 20N band (what I use for the tropics). <br /><br />"Is that normal during an El Nino? Does the heat from ajoining waters somehow, to use an inapplicable layman's term, get 'sucked' into the tropics?"<br /><br />Keep in mind that the SST response by the rest of the world lags the equatorial Pacific by weeks and months. SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were relatively flat for a few months, so I believe this allowed the normal seasonal cycle to come into play recently. Now as the SST anomalies rise, there's a slight lag before the rest of the world reacts again, which it should.<br /><br />And "sucked into the tropics" seems appropriate. The convection that normally occurs in the Pacific Warm Pool (western tropical Pacific) during ENSO-neutral and La Nina years moves east with the warm waters during an El Nino. Surface winds are drawn toward the convection, drawing more warm surface water toward the equator and cooling the waters in the extratropical Pacific. Can this effect be seen in a video of the 1997/98 El Nino? It appears so, especially in the South Pacific.<br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8KupSFlb9w<br />I guess it's a matter of interpretation.<br /><br />You asked, "does it seem likely that this bubble will surface outside of the 120W range, continue to flatten the thermocline, and then the Nino will proceed to dissipate as the winter rolls on?"<br /><br />Based on the animation you linked, it appears the 5 to 6 deg C (plus) anomalies are working their way to the east of 120W and to the surface. So the El Nino should continue to strengthen. I believe the flattening of the thermocline signals that the El Nino is working toward a conclusion, that it's not going to hang around for another year, so the rest of your analysis appears reasonable.<br /><br />RegardsBob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-64148041868511841292009-11-10T11:09:11.733-05:002009-11-10T11:09:11.733-05:00Thanks for the great summary post, Bob. I look fo...Thanks for the great summary post, Bob. I look forward to seeing your future reasearch as well, especially on OHC.<br /><br />Quick question - I notice from the Nov. 4th OI v.2 data that both the northern and southern hempispheres continue to have dropping SST anomalies outside the 20S to 20N band (what I use for the tropics). <br /><br />Is that normal during an El Nino? Does the heat from ajoining waters somehow, to use an inapplicable layman's term, get "sucked" into the tropics?<br /><br />Also, the massive heat bubble in the NINO map seems to be continuing to move east and up to the surface (but has nothing following it that I can see)- does it seem likely that this bubble will surface outside of the 120W range, continue to flatten the thermocline, and then the Nino will proceed to dissipate as the winter rolls on? I don't need a prediction from you, more whether, based on the current charts (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml), that that is a reasonable analysis. <br /><br />I can see that bubble leading to quite the slosh-back west next year. But as you say, we'll see. :)Johnnoreply@blogger.com