tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post6210627685882765577..comments2023-07-29T05:11:23.558-04:00Comments on Climate Observations: October to December 2010 NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700Meters) Update and CommentsBob Tisdalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-71329039571537572402011-03-27T05:34:33.391-04:002011-03-27T05:34:33.391-04:00Anonymous @ March 18, 2011 12:05 PM: Sorry. Didn...Anonymous @ March 18, 2011 12:05 PM: Sorry. Didn't mean to sit on your comment for a week. With the links, it was stuck in the spam filter. I'll have to check that more often. <br /><br />The subsurface equatorial Pacific temperature anomalies this year are more advanced than they were in March 2009, but, curiously, the average of the forecast models are looking more toward ENSO neutral. <br /><br />It'll be interesting to see what happens. Will ENSO follow the models and remain neutral next season? Will we get a series of small El Nino events like we did after the 1986/87/88 El Nino and after the 1997/98 El Nino? Or we there be a sizable El Nino? Time will tell.Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-11260791424575244102011-03-18T16:03:04.049-04:002011-03-18T16:03:04.049-04:00And here's the address of the Knox & Dougl...And here's the address of the Knox & Douglass paper David referenced above:<br />http://www.pas.rochester.edu/~douglass/papers/KD_InPress_final.pdf<br /><br />Thanks, DavidBob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-34735081165357700172011-03-18T15:56:07.447-04:002011-03-18T15:56:07.447-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-47713353580673420762011-03-18T12:05:35.188-04:002011-03-18T12:05:35.188-04:00It seems that now the Equatorial Pacific is heatin...It seems that now the Equatorial Pacific is heating up:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso/wkteq_xz.gif" rel="nofollow">Mean and anomalous equatorial temperatures</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml" rel="nofollow">Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomaly </a><br /><br /><br />Given the huge volume of warm water that accmulated during the 2010-2011 La Niña in the West Pacific and is now heading east as La Niña weakens, I expect an El Niño in the coming months, probably bigger than the 2009-2010 one.<br /><br />(I hope the links work. If not, the websites are:<br /><br />http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso/wkteq_xz.gif<br /><br />http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-57926033440504918742011-03-17T22:05:00.063-04:002011-03-17T22:05:00.063-04:00The URL to the Knox Douglass paper is
David Doug...The URL to the Knox Douglass paper is <br /><br />David Douglassdavid douglassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-72933994079590263432011-03-17T21:33:23.827-04:002011-03-17T21:33:23.827-04:00David: Unfortunately, your hyperlink didn't w...David: Unfortunately, your hyperlink didn't work. You'll probably have to provide the address.Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-2317413955430833092011-03-17T21:28:09.935-04:002011-03-17T21:28:09.935-04:00HR said: "To answer my own question I guess t...HR said: "To answer my own question I guess that if this region is being constantly fed deep cold water via upwelling..."<br /><br />That's as good an answer as I've seen written, and it's reasonable easy to explain.Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-35295213923937006892011-03-17T20:06:11.251-04:002011-03-17T20:06:11.251-04:00Bob
Thanks for pointing out that the NODC OHC d...Bob<br /><br /> Thanks for pointing out that the NODC OHC data is now available through 2010 and that the data “continues to be remarkable flat”. R. S. Knox and I published a paper “Recent Energy Balance of the Earth” (here) in which we estimated the “flatness” by the slope. Using the annual NODC OHC global data from 2003 to 2009 we determined a slope of 0.009±0.129 W/m2. The new data from 2003 to 2010 for 2010 shows a slope of 0.031±0.064 W/m2. The “flatness” continues. <br /><br /> This value of slope is to be compared with the “missing energy” of about 1 W/m2 suggested from models by Trenberth and Fassulo (Science 328 pp 316-317, 2010).<br /><br />David Douglass<br />Dept of Physics<br />University of Rochesterdavid douglassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-65581554380964612932011-03-17T20:03:00.930-04:002011-03-17T20:03:00.930-04:00To answer my own question I guess that if this reg...To answer my own question I guess that if this region is being constantly fed deep cold water via upwelling on the west coast of S.America and any changes are quickly driven out of the region by the ENSO process then there would be a good reason why there is no trend at the epicentre of this process.HRnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-82790607489958251712011-03-17T19:53:45.675-04:002011-03-17T19:53:45.675-04:00Yep thanks I just realized that and was about to p...Yep thanks I just realized that and was about to post a correction.<br /><br />The curious thing is there is no trend associated with the Equatorial OHC data (at least since 1979). Any thoughts why that might be?HRnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-49634802536036724412011-03-17T19:42:32.412-04:002011-03-17T19:42:32.412-04:00HR: The Heat Content data you've linked is th...HR: The Heat Content data you've linked is the temperature anomalies of upper 300meters for the equatorial Pacific. I believe it's for that latitudes of 5S-5N. The equatorial Pacific OHC data shown in Figure 4 above (also 5S-5N) also mimics NINO3.4 SST anomalies.<br /><br />It's the tropics (24S-24N) that aren't following suit.Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-86902114463607663902011-03-17T18:54:58.659-04:002011-03-17T18:54:58.659-04:00Thanks Bob,
" The drop in the tropical Pacif...Thanks Bob,<br /><br />" The drop in the tropical Pacific OHC during 2010 is unusual. It should be rising (recharging) during this period. It’s impossible to tell at this time if this is a delayed response or a downward shift."<br /><br />I'm sure you are aware of this page<br /><br />http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml<br /><br />it includes this OHC data<br /><br />http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt<br /><br />which suggests that OHC reached it nadir Sept/Oct 2011 and has been rising since. I'm not sure why the NODC data looks different.HRnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-10429335353932236572011-03-17T11:22:02.961-04:002011-03-17T11:22:02.961-04:00John: I had planned to include that comparison in ...John: I had planned to include that comparison in the upcoming post about ARGO-era OHC. I've got a couple more graphs to generate, one of which is a trend comparison of all of the basins, which is time consuming, so I'll probably post it next week.<br /><br />RegardsBob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-27637243968205280812011-03-17T10:26:17.575-04:002011-03-17T10:26:17.575-04:00Thanks for the update, Bob. Very interesting.
Ca...Thanks for the update, Bob. Very interesting.<br /><br />Can you easily update the chart you had comparing current content to the content predicted by Hansen? I found that chart illuminating. If it's too much effort, please do not bother.<br /><br />Thanks, as always.Johnnoreply@blogger.com