tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post2701033258871855722..comments2023-07-29T05:11:23.558-04:00Comments on Climate Observations: Recent Antarctic Warming Attribution Complicated By ENSO Events?Bob Tisdalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-5406451795631752042009-01-22T22:50:00.000-05:002009-01-22T22:50:00.000-05:00Got a rough model done. Looks really good for how ...Got a rough model done. Looks really good for how simple it is. I shifted the MEI data by six months and the Optical data by 8 months, then scaled them and added them together. I also had to add in a linear transformation because the data slopes were off. I just used the 0.0128 C/yr slope from the UAH data. The last two plots in my weather gallery show the results.<BR/><BR/>http://gallery.me.com/wally#100002&bgcolor=black&view=grid<BR/><BR/>I'll have to use something a little more powerful than Excel to nail down the scale factors and transformation slopes, but even the rough numbers look good to me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-89033174506541393852009-01-22T21:33:00.000-05:002009-01-22T21:33:00.000-05:00Thanks for the information. I will update my analy...Thanks for the information. I will update my analysis and see how things look. It will probably give a 6-month or so look ahead on global temperatures but won't mean much without good predictive models for the ocean cycles themselves.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-57690283407470590022009-01-22T19:42:00.000-05:002009-01-22T19:42:00.000-05:00Wally: The only monthly index of volcanic aerosol...Wally: The only monthly index of volcanic aerosols impact that I've found is the Sato Index data. It comes in global and hemispheric datasets. Sorry, I usually include sources down at the end of the post. <BR/><BR/>The Sato Index Data is available from GISS at:<BR/>http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/strataer/<BR/><BR/>Specifically:<BR/>http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/strataer/tau_line.txt<BR/><BR/>The only other volcanic data is the Lamb Dust Veil Index, but that's annual.Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-36339110444763343242009-01-22T19:19:00.000-05:002009-01-22T19:19:00.000-05:00Lots of good information here. I would suggest mov...Lots of good information here. I would suggest moving the X-axis on the plots to the bottom to make them more legible. I know this is not the default Excel behavior but it should be.<BR/><BR/>I was looking at the MEI data versus global temperatures and found good correlation with a 6-month offset except for the years influenced by volcanic eruptions. I have the U. of Colorado data for 58 to 92 on atmospheric transmission measurements from Mauna Loa and they match well with the differences in MEI to temperature, but I think they may also need some time shifting. Do you know of a source that provides monthly averages for transmission or another marker for the effect of volcanoes for the time period covered by the Sat temperature data? I have found lots of detailed daily records of solar radiation but it would be a huge amount of work to make the seasonal adjustments in that data and do the monthly averaging. I have also seen transmission plots that cover longer periods but have not found the data source for the plots.<BR/><BR/>In any case based on the six month lag, I think we should see a slight falling of world average temperatures over the next 6 months.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com