NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) - 2007, 2008 & 2009 Corrections

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) – 2007, 2008 & 2009 Corrections

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The National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) recently updated its 4th quarter and annual 2009 Ocean Heat Content (OHC) data. The data that was presented in conjunction with the Levitus et al (2009) Paper now covers the period of 1955 to 2009. There have been changes that some might find significant.

This post presents:
1. A brief look at the revisions (corrections) to the data in 2007 and 2008 OHC data
2. A comparison of the NODC OHC data for the period of 2003 to 2009 versus the GISS projection

REVISIONS (Corrections) TO THE 2007 AND 2008 NODC OHC DATA

Figure 1 is a gif animation of two Ocean Heat Content graphs posted on the NODC GLOBAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT webpage. It shows the differences between the current (January 2010) version and one that appears to include data through June or September 2009. So this is an “Official” correction (not more incompletely updated data posted on the NODC website discussed in NODC's CORRECTION TO OHC (0-700m) DATA, which required me to make corrections to a handful of posts). I have found nothing in the NODC OHC web pages that discuss these new corrections. Due to the years involved, is it safe to assume these are more corrections for ARGO biases? As of this writing, I have not gone through the individual ocean basins to determine if the corrections were to one ocean basin, a group of basins, or if they’re global; I’ll put aside the multipart post I’ve been working on for the past few weeks and try to take a look over the next few days.

http://i48.tinypic.com/14e6wjn.gif
Figure 1

NODC OHC OBSERVATIONS VERSUS GISS PROJECTION (2003-2009)
One of the posts that needed to be corrected back in October was NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Versus GISS Projections (Corrected). The final graph in that post was a comparison of global ocean heat content observations for the period of 2003 through year-to-date 2009 versus the projection made by James Hansen of GISS of an approximate accumulation of 0.98*10^22 Joules per year. Figure 2 is an updated version of that comparison. Annual Global OHC data was downloaded from the NODC website (not through KNMI). The trend of the current version of the NODC OHC data is approximately 1.5% of the GISS projection. That is, GISS projected a significant rise, while the observations have flattened significantly in recent years. The apparent basis for the divergence between observations and the GISS Projection was discussed in the appropriately titled post Why Are OHC Observations (0-700m) Diverging From GISS Projections?
http://i47.tinypic.com/20kvhwn.png
Figure 2

Note: The earlier version of that graph (with the NODC’s October 15, 2009 correction)…
http://i37.tinypic.com/i6xtnl.png
…shows a linear trend of ~0.08*10^22 Joules/year. The current linear trend is ~0.015*10^22 Joules/year. Some might consider that decrease to be significant.
NOTE: I DELETED THE THIRD AND FOURTH PARTS OF THIS POST…
3. GLOBAL, HEMISPHERIC, AND INDIVIDUAL BASIN OHC UPDATE THROUGH DECEMBER 2009, AND
4. TREND COMPARISONS
…UNTIL I TRACK DOWN DISCREPANCIES I CAN’T EXPLAIN. I WILL REPOST THOSE SECTIONS IN A NEW POST. I BELIEVE I UNDERSTAND THE DIFFERENCES, BUT I NEED TO CHECK WITH KNMI.

SOURCES
NODC Annual Global OHC data used in Figure 2 is available here:
ftp://ftp.nodc.noaa.gov/pub/data.nodc/woa/DATA_ANALYSIS/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/DATA/basin/yearly/h22-w0-700m.dat

Illusions Of An Instrument Temperature Record With Complete Global Coverage

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Illusions Of An Instrument Temperature Record With Complete Global Coverage

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CORRECTION: The original version of this post incorrectly stated that GISS used HADSST2 SST anomaly data for the period from 1880 to 1981. This was incorrect. I know GISS uses the HADISST dataset. Must be my age. I’ve corrected the error in the text. It does not change the overall message.

OPENING NOTE: This is not a post about the accuracy of the instrument temperature record. It also is not about the methods researchers employ to infill missing data or to reconstruct sea surface temperatures. This post is a complaint about the portrayal of compete global coverage of temperature measurements.

In his post “What NASA has to Say about Global Temperatures,” Brett Anderson at the AccuWeather Global Warming Blog provided a link to a NASA/Goddard Multimedia video “2009 Global Temperature Package: Year Tied as Second Hottest”. NASA/Goddard Multimedia describes the video as “Reporters package style video about the new 2009 global temperature data. Scientists at the Goddard Institute for Space Science found that 2009 was tied as the second hottest year ever recorded.” The scientist interviewed in the video is James Hansen of GISS.

Link to Video:
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010500/a010557/G2010-004_Global_Temp_2009-MPEG1_512x288.mpg

Link to corresponding NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center webpage:
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010500/a010557/

Link to transcript:
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010500/a010557/script_1330_00.html

One image in the video prompted this post. Figure 1 is a screen cap of the map of Global Temperature anomalies for 1880. The image appears approximately one minute into the video as the narrator says, “And when looking back all the way to 1880, the year when precise temperature record keeping began…” I stopped the video there, so I'm unsure if the next image was the obligatory fire-engine red depiction of global temperatures in 2009.

Even though there was no temperature scale for the 1880 temperature anomaly map, I was not struck by the overwhelmingly cold portrayal of the temperature anomalies. What hit me was the total global coverage as the narrator said, “…1880, the year when precise temperature record keeping began…” NASA did not state that the image was a map of the precise global temperature anomalies for the year 1880. NASA did not state that the global coverage was complete. NASA implied both…at least to me they did. And someone who does not understand how sparse temperature measurements were in 1880, and in the decades that followed, would be led to believe that they were complete and “precise”.


http://i50.tinypic.com/9pubue.png
Figure 1

Figures 2, 3, and 4 are global temperature anomaly maps available through the GISS website here:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

Figure 2 shows global combined land+sea surface temperature anomalies for 1880 with the GISS standard 1200km smoothing. Coverage is far less complete than the map provided in the video. There are no readings in the Antarctic and for much of the Southern Ocean that surrounds that continent. The Arctic, Africa, and Asia show little to no available data. The only reason South America appears to have any data is the bleed-over of sea surface temperature anomalies onto land, an illusion.
http://i45.tinypic.com/n2mybk.png
Figure 2

A map of Land Surface Temperature anomalies for 1880 with 250 km smoothing, Figure 3, provides a better illustration of how poor the coverage of the instrument temperature record actually was in those early years. Note the carry-over of land surface temperature anomalies into the oceans. This is yet another illusion that gives the appearance of better global coverage, an illusion that is much greater with the standard GISS 1200 km smoothing (Refer to the update at the end of the post).
http://i50.tinypic.com/55nehg.png
Figure 3

Other than the Arctic and Southern Oceans, the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly map for 1880 (250km smoothing) shows complete coverage. For the period of 1880 to 1981, GISS uses sea surface temperature data from the Hadley Centre (HADISST). The Hadley Centre infills data that is missing, and in 1880, there were large areas of the global oceans with no readings, as you shall see.
http://i47.tinypic.com/2lmbgud.png
Figure 4

Sea surface temperature measurements prior to the satellite and buoys eras were primarily taken in shipping lanes. The map of other Hadley Centre SST dataset (HADSST2) in 1880, Figure 5, better reflects the areas where measurements were sparse. The Hadley Centre uses COADS Sea Surface Temperature data, adjusts it for known biases, and presents it in 5 degree grids.
http://i48.tinypic.com/2navigx.png
Figure 5

The spatial coverage of the COADS Sea Surface Temperature data (2 degree grids) in 1880 is shown in Figure 6.
http://i48.tinypic.com/2jbmyx.png
Figure 6

In Figure 7, I’ve shifted the COADS map to provide an uninterrupted illustration of the Pacific. Note the massive areas in the central and western Pacific where there were no readings in 1880.
http://i49.tinypic.com/5vzml3.png
Figure 7

The coverage of Sea Surface Temperature readings did not improve greatly over the decades. This can be seen in the collection of COADS SST data coverage maps available from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Figure 8.

http://i48.tinypic.com/2i7spwy.png
Figure 8

In short, COADS provides its Sea Surface Temperature data in 2 degree grids, and as can be seen in Figure 7 above, there was very little coverage of the global oceans in 1880. For the HADISST data, the Hadley Centre infills vast amounts. In turn, this infilled HADISST data is used by GISS. Land Surface Temperature readings are no better in the early decades, as shown in Figure 3. The GISS 1200 km smoothing is a process that gives the illusion of better global coverage, but even with the 1200 km smoothing, land surface temperature readings are so incomplete in early years that there are major gaps in coverage over land masses, Figure 2.

Yet somehow the coverage of global temperature measurement in 1880 is shown to be complete in the NASA video. And as noted earlier, someone who does not understand how incomplete the instrument temperature record was in 1880, and in the decades that followed, would be led to believe that it was complete and “precise”.
UPDATE: Above, I did not present the GISS Land Surface Temperature map for 1880 with the 1200 km smoothing, the map that shows the illusion of more complete coverage presented by the additional GISS smoothing. Figure 9 is a gif animation that compares GISS land surface temperature and sea surface temperature maps for 1880 with 1200 km smoothing. The Land Surface Temperature map shows the bleed-over into the oceans that presents nothing meaningful. The carry-over into the oceans makes the coverage appear more complete, but it does not represent sea surface temperature. The comparative animation of LST and SST illustrates that the 1200 km bleed-over into the ocean bears no similarity to the SST readings.

http://i47.tinypic.com/28bfb6g.gif
Figure 9

ADDITIONAL SOURCES

The HADSST2 and COADS SST maps are available through the KNMI Climate Explorer:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere

The COADS coverage maps can be found at the bottom of the NCAR webpage here:
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/guide/Data/coads.html

Mid-January 2010 SST Anomaly Update

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Mid-January 2010 SST Anomaly Update

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Weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies for the week centered on January 20, 2010 show a drop of 0.48 deg C over the past four weeks. Presently they’re at 1.45 deg C. It appears the 2009/10 El Nino has peaked. Assuming the 2009/10 El Nino won’t become a multiyear El Nino, the questions now: how quickly will NINO3.4 SST anomalies drop and how severe will the La Nina be?
http://i49.tinypic.com/dfdpjb.png
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies

Refer also to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology ENSO Wrap-Up webpage for other indicators:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Weekly Global SST anomalies are still elevated, but they are 0.07 deg C below the most recent peak that occurred four weeks ago. Will they continue to drop or will there be a lagged rise? Time will tell.
http://i47.tinypic.com/zyejr.png
Global SST Anomalies

SOURCE

OI.v2 SST anomaly data is available through the NOAA NOMADS system:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite=

Does The Instrument Temperature Record Contradict The Anthropogenic Global Warming Hypothesis?

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Does The Instrument Temperature Record Contradict The Anthropogenic Global Warming Hypothesis?

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I was recently asked to outline my findings about the multiyear aftereffects of ENSO and to do so in one page or less. Instead, I’ll use the title question as the basis for this post. To accomplish the desired task of limiting my discussion to less than one page, I’ll provide no illustrations, but will provide links to more detailed discussions.

The Instrument Temperature Record Contradicts The Hypothesis That Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases Warm The Global Oceans. But in order to see this, the National Oceanographic Data Center’s (Levitus et al 2009) Ocean Heat Content (OHC) data must be divided into subsets. In this form, most ocean basins show decadal and multidecadal declines in OHC, with sudden surges that correspond to multiyear La Nina events or to changes in atmospheric pressure as defined by the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific Index. These findings were discussed and illustrated in three posts. First: ENSO Dominates NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Data, Second: North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Is Governed By Natural Variables, and Third: North Pacific Ocean Heat Content Shift In The Late 1980s.

The Instrument Temperature Record Contradicts The Hypothesis That Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases Are The Primary Cause Of The Rise In Lower Troposphere Temperature (TLT) Anomalies. There is a very clear upward step change in the TLT anomalies of the Mid-To-High Latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This upward step change was caused by the strong El Nino event of 1997/98. A smaller upward step change is evident after the 1986/87/88 El Nino, but the step is masked by the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991. These step changes in the TLT anomalies of the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere bias global TLT anomalies and give the impression of a gradual rise in global TLT anomalies. This was discussed and illustrated using times-series graphs and time-latitude plots (Hovmollers) in the post RSS MSU TLT Time-Latitude Plots...Show Climate Responses That Cannot Be Easily Illustrated With Time-Series Graphs Alone.

The Instrument Temperature Record Contradicts The Hypothesis That Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases Have Caused The Rise In Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Since 1976. This was first discussed over a year ago in two posts: Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1 and Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2. In those posts I illustrate how approximately 25% of the global oceans between the latitudes of 60S and 65N warm in response to El Nino events, and, in a counterintuitive response, also warm during La Nina events. This impacts global SST anomaly trends and is mistaken for anthropogenic global warming. I have over the past year expanded on the explanation in many posts. Three recent posts provide detailed discussions of the processes that cause SST anomalies to rise in response to El Nino AND La Nina events. These recent posts are, first, More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO – Part 1 – El Nino Events Warm The Oceans, second, More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 2 – La Nina Events Recharge The Heat Released By El Nino Events AND...During Major Traditional ENSO Events, Warm Water Is Redistributed Via Ocean Currents, and third, More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 3 – East Indian & West Pacific Oceans Can Warm In Response To Both El Nino & La Nina Events.

I have also posted 23 videos on YouTube for those who prefer animations. Many of those videos deal with the multiyear aftereffects of ENSO and their impacts on global temperatures. Refer to:
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=bobtisdale1&search_type=&aq=f

Was 2009 The Warmest Year On Record In The Southern Hemisphere?

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Was 2009 The Warmest Year On Record In The Southern Hemisphere?

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After reading Roger Pielke Sr’s post Reality Check On Science Magazine’s Claim That 2009 Was The Hottest Year on Record in Southern Hemisphere, I plotted Annual GISTEMP Southern Hemisphere Land+Sea Surface Temperature anomalies from 1982 to 2009, Figure 1, and the Annual UAH MSU TLT anomalies for the same period, Figure 2. There’s nothing surprising with those graphs based on Pielke Sr’s post. GISTEMP is showing record 2009 combined surface temperatures for the Southern Hemisphere, while the 2009 TLT anomalies are far from record levels.
http://i50.tinypic.com/16l9pon.png
Figure 1
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http://i50.tinypic.com/alq6wy.png
Figure 2

The annual NCDC Land+Sea Surface Temperature anomalies from 1982 to 2009, Figure 3, also do not show the record levels in 2009, but the NCDC does not infill with the 1200km smoothing like GISS.
http://i45.tinypic.com/2h2ghdy.png
Figure 3

GISS has used OI.v2 SST data since 1982. Figure 3 is an annual graph of SST anomalies for the Southern Hemisphere, and it illustrates that 2009 was not a record year for SST anomalies. That leaves the GISS land surface temperature anomaly data as the culprit.
http://i50.tinypic.com/2eceu74.png
Figure 4

Hadley Centre data is still not available for December, and they’ve been running late recently. The NCDC and GISS data through KNMI Climate Explorer data should be updated within the next few days, so we’ll be able to do some comparisons and try to determine which of the continents is responsible for the new record GISS Southern Hemisphere temperatures.

SOURCES

OI.v2 SST anomaly data is available through the NOAA NOMADS website:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite

The GISTEMP Southern Hemisphere Land Plus Surface Temperature data is available from GISS:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/SH.Ts+dSST.txt

The NCDC Southern Hemisphere Land Plus Surface Temperature data is available here:
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/monthly.land_ocean.90S.00N.df_1901-2000mean.dat

The UAH MSU TLT anomaly data was retrieved from the KNMI Climate Explorer:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere

Flattening (For The Most Part) Ocean Basin Linear Trends

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Flattening (For The Most Part) Ocean Basin Linear Trends

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The linear trends of the Global Combined and Sea Surface Temperatures have flattened in recent years. For those interested in which of the five major ocean basins--Indian, North and South Atlantic, North and South Pacific--has flattened the most, which is actually showing an increase, and which are now showing negative trends over the past decade, I’ve prepared the following three spaghetti graphs. The linear trends, Figures 1 though 3, were determined by EXCEL for the following three periods:
Figure 1 – November 1981 to December 2009 (from the start of the OI.v2 SST dataset)
Figure 2 – January 1995 to December 2009 (the past 15 years)
Figure 3 – January 2000 to December 2009 (the past 10 years)

The decadal trends and the coordinates used for the ocean basins are listed in Table 1.
http://i50.tinypic.com/iddpvd.png
Figure 1 – November 1981 to December 2009
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http://i48.tinypic.com/33fetlz.png
Figure 2 – January 1995 to December 2009
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http://i46.tinypic.com/11j8xu1.png
Figure 3 – January 2000 to December 2009
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http://i49.tinypic.com/11kzd4y.png
Table 1

SOURCE

The Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (OISST) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite

The Curious Effect In The Recently Posted Animation Of Global SST Anomalies

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at The Curious Effect In The Recently Posted Animation Of Global SST Anomalies

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UPDATE January 15, 2010: Warwick Hughes suggested that I check the other datasets. They are included at the end of the post.
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While I was preparing the maps included in the Animation Of Weekly Global SST Anomaly Maps – November 1, 1981 To January 6, 2010, I noticed an unusual “wave” of cool SST anomalies that appeared to circle the globe in the mid latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, Figure 1.


http://i47.tinypic.com/xdz0xu.png
Figure 1

It forms about October 30, 1991, near 40S, wanders 10 degrees North toward the equator until mid December, then turns around and heads poleward. It finally disappears about the end of January 1992. Refer to the .gif animation, Figure 2.

http://i46.tinypic.com/243p6pk.gif
Figure 2

I could not find the effect again in the animation. The El Nino that season wasn’t a major event, but Mount Pinatubo erupted about five months earlier, in early June 1991. Is it an aftereffect of Mount Pinatubo? I have no other explanation, but I also haven’t seen this effect discussed in any papers.

Here’s the video again for those wanting to confirm that the “wave” doesn’t appear at any other time. If you do notice it again, please let me know.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKMY4JRN0kkYouTube Link

SOURCE
User-defined OI.v2 SST Anomaly maps can be created at the “Full Version” of the NOAA NOMADS webpage here:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh
UPDATE January 15, 2010: Warwick Hughes noted in a comment:

Bob, it looks like an artifact of the datset construction to me. My inclination would be to check against other SST datsets. I do not want to suggest more work for you.
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I’ve included my response in the following so that I can display the maps of the other datasets. Otherwise they’d appear as tinypic addresses that you’d have to cut and paste to your browser.
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Warwick: Thanks for the thought. I’ve used KNMI Climate Explorer to create the maps of the other datasets. The other datasets are presented only in monthly format, so as a spotcheck of the second source, I’ve also plotted the OI.v2 data. The monthly OI.v2 shows the line of negative anomalies in November 1991:
http://i46.tinypic.com/2z84x8m.png
OI.v2 data for November 1991

HADISST (satellite based like the OI.v2 data) shows a similar pattern but not as defined, and it only appears in December:
http://i47.tinypic.com/2jg9ppf.png
HADISST data for December 1991

The HADSST2 data in that part (your part) of the world is fragmented, as you know, but it seems to contradict the OI.v2 data:
http://i46.tinypic.com/2nv8hhu.png
HADSST2 data for December 1991

Since the ERSST.v2 and ERSST.v3b data are also based on the incomplete ICOADS data and are infilled by the NCDC, I wouldn’t expect the pattern to show. Here’s the ERSST.v3b plot for November 1991 anyway:
http://i49.tinypic.com/s3lzdx.png
ERSST.v3b data for Nov 1991

Animation Of Weekly Global SST Anomaly Maps – November 1, 1981 To January 6, 2010

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Animation Of Weekly Global SST Anomaly Maps – November 1, 1981 To January 6, 2010

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The following is the animation of weekly global SST anomaly maps (OI.v2 SST data) from November 1, 1981 To January 6, 2010. The contour intervals were set at 0.2 deg C to bring out the smaller changes in SST anomalies that are caused by the ENSO-induced changes in atmospheric circulation, the teleconnections.

I had prepared the majority of the maps used in the animation back in July, and began work on a video detailing the rise in global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies since November 1981. The video got put aside. At nearly 30 minutes combined, the 3-part video was too long, and I still had more to say. Many of the graphics have appeared in subsequent posts, so that work wasn’t a waste.

Recently, two visitors have asked me about SST anomaly patterns in specific basins. This video would have been helpful to them and others looking for a means to easily display those patterns. Simply let the video play through to the desired months. Or watch for the pattern and see if an El Nino or La Nina event is taking place.

To explain the added warming in the North Atlantic, I refer to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, but I use the paleoclimatological reconstruction as a graphic instead of the normal detrended North Atlantic SST anomalies since the 1800s. More on this in a subsequent post.

The posts referred to in the video are:
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index Reconstruction
And:
Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1
And:
Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2
And:
More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO – Part 1 – El Nino Events Warm The Oceans
And:
More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 2 – La Nina Events Recharge The Heat Released By El Nino Events AND...
And:
More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 3 – East Indian & West Pacific Oceans Can Warm In Response To Both El Nino & La Nina Events

And now the video:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKMY4JRN0kk
YouTube Link

SOURCE

User-defined OI.v2 SST Anomaly maps can be created at the “Full Version” of the NOAA NOMADS webpage here:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh

December 2009 SST Anomaly Update

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at December 2009 SST Anomaly Update

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NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Remained Well In Strong El Nino Territories, And Global SST Anomalies Have Responded To The Surge From Last Month.

MONTHLY SST ANOMALY MAP

The map of Global OI.v2 SST anomalies for December 2009 downloaded from the NOMADS website is shown below.
http://i49.tinypic.com/243i2it.png
December 2009 SST Anomalies Map (Global SST Anomaly = +0.31 deg C)

MONTHLY OVERVIEW

Global SST anomalies rose a good amount (+0.052 deg C) between November and December, with the rise in the Southern Hemisphere (+0.086 deg C) significantly larger than the rise in the Northern Hemisphere (+0.008 deg C). The equatorial Pacific remains in strong El Nino conditions (Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly = +1.82 deg C and Weekly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly = +1.76 deg C). Monthly NINO3.4 SST anomalies rose +0.15 in December, while the weekly data shows NINO3.4 SST anomalies have dropped from their peak over the past two weeks. (Does this mean NINO3.4 SST Anomalies have reached their peak for the season?)
http://i45.tinypic.com/r29jir.png
Global
Monthly Change = +0.052 deg C
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http://i49.tinypic.com/2v28b2v.png
NINO3.4 SST Anomaly
Monthly Change = +0.15 deg C

EAST INDIAN-WEST PACIFIC

As noted last month, I’ve added the East Indian-West Pacific SST Anomaly data well in advance of when any evidence of a step change would occur. (I’m trying to draw attention to the atypical response.) Using the 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Nino events as references, East Indian-West Pacific SST Anomalies peak about 7 to 9 months after the peak of the NINO3.4 SST anomalies, so we shouldn’t expect any visible sign of a step change for almost 18 to 24 months. We’ll just have to watch and see.
http://i49.tinypic.com/25z5y55.png
East Indian-West Pacific (60S-65N, 80E-180)
Monthly Change = -0.01 deg C

Further information on the upward “step changes” that result from strong El Nino events, refer to my posts from a year ago Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1 and Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2

NOTE ABOUT THE DATA

The MONTHLY graphs illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 SST anomaly data from November 1981 to December 2009.

MONTHLY INDIVIDUAL OCEAN AND HEMISPHERIC SST UPDATES
http://i45.tinypic.com/2uivexe.png
Northern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = +0.008 deg C
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http://i45.tinypic.com/2hhnd6h.png
Southern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = +0.086 deg C
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http://i46.tinypic.com/w2knrd.png
North Atlantic (0 to 75N, 78W to 10E)
Monthly Change = -0.025 deg C
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http://i46.tinypic.com/69fgb4.png
South Atlantic (0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)
Monthly Change = +0.192 deg C
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http://i50.tinypic.com/xkyxko.png
North Pacific (0 to 65N, 100 to 270E, where 270E=90W)
Monthly Change = +0.009 Deg C
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http://i49.tinypic.com/2edcdnt.png
South Pacific (0 to 60S, 145 to 290E, where 290E=70W)
Monthly Change = +0.116 deg C
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http://i49.tinypic.com/zugkjm.png
Indian Ocean (30N to 60S, 20 to 145E)
Monthly Change = +0.030 deg C
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http://i46.tinypic.com/1zgq6p3.png
Arctic Ocean (65 to 90N)
Monthly Change = -0.092 deg C
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http://i50.tinypic.com/2vmvsd2.png
Southern Ocean (60 to 90S)
Monthly Change = +0.007 deg C

WEEKLY NINO3.4 SST ANOMALIES

The weekly NINO3.4 SST anomaly data illustrate OI.v2 data centered on Wednesdays. The latest weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies are +1.76 deg C, down from a (seasonal?) peak of 1.94 Deg C two weeks ago.
http://i46.tinypic.com/j8e54m.png
Weekly NINO3.4 (5S-5N, 170W-120W)

SOURCE
The Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (OISST) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite

Animation Of NODC Ocean Heat Content Data (0-700 Meters) 1955 to 2009

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Animation Of NODC Ocean Heat Content Data (0-700 Meters) 1955 to 2009

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Using the graphics (mapping) feature of the KNMI Climate Explorer, I’ve created an animation of the National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) Ocean Heat Content data. The KNMI graphics software was used to smooth the transitions between the quarterly data, giving the appearance of monthly OHC data. However, due to the sparseness of the data in the first few decades, the processes associated with ENSO are not easily visible until the 1982/83 El Nino, but I’ve included all years for the sake of completeness.

The video suggests that viewers also refer to three posts for further discussions on the natural variables that caused the vast majority of the rise in Ocean Heat Content since 1955. Those posts are:
ENSO Dominates NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Data
And:
North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Is Governed By Natural Variables
And:
North Pacific Ocean Heat Content Shift In The Late 1980s

The video:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVeQ2tW24xo
YouTube Link

SOURCE

Maps of NODC Ocean Heat Content data are available through the KNMI Climate Explorer:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere

Looks Like One Prediction Came True

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Looks Like One Prediction Came True

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Florida Has Disappeared.

Note how the blue "Light Snow" coloring blends with the Atlantic and seems to cut off most of the Sunshine State.

http://i49.tinypic.com/24erus5.jpg

South Pacific SST Patterns

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at South Pacific SST Patterns

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INTRODUCTIONThere are visitors here who probably wondered why, in my prior post about the South Pacific Hot Spot, I did not use a longer-term dataset such as ERSST.v3b or HADISST. And there are other visitors who would assume to know the reason why I hadn’t bothered. This post is for both. I had mixed emotions about starting it because it really would not prove anything; it would simply illustrate very basic facts about Sea Surface Temperature (SST) reconstructions.

The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) dataset used for the Hadley Centre and NOAA/NCDC SST reconstructions contains large areas with little to no data, especially in the South Pacific. And this low sampling continued through the first few decades of the satellite era. So if I used the longer dataset, instead of the satellite-based OI.v2, I would have had to assume the assumptions made by the researchers during the reconstruction of South Pacific SST data were correct.

Keep in mind, this post is about patterns, not time-series graphs. When looking at basin-wide SST data in a time-series graph, the different methods used to infill the gaps create differences in linear-trends, but the year-to-year wiggles tend to follow one another, though there are some occasional exceptions. I’ll provide long- and short-term graphs with linear trends at the end of this post for those interested.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) before the advent of buoys and satellites was measured by ships. The majority of ships traversing the oceans kept to shipping lanes. This limited the spatial coverage of SST measurements, especially in the South Pacific. Figure 1 is a collection of COADS SST data coverage maps available from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). More on COADS later. And here are the links to the full-size individual maps:
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/guide/Data/coads.sst.f1.html
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/guide/Data/coads.sst.f2.html
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/guide/Data/coads.sst.f3.html

NCAR describes the maps as “Percentage of non-missing data in each time period is plotted. The minimum number of observations needed per month per grid box was 1.” Non-missing data is an interesting but descriptive explanation. It definitely gets the point across that missing data is the norm in many areas. Each of the maps illustrates the monthly SST coverage for a 20-year period, starting in 1861 and ending in 1997. Zero to 10% coverage is in white, while complete coverage (90 to 100%) is shown in gold. Even the last period from 1981 to 1997 shows major gaps in the data for the South Pacific.

http://i48.tinypic.com/2i7spwy.png
Figure 1

Assume for example, after posting the discussion of the South Pacific Hot Spot, I wanted to take a longer look at South Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly maps during El Nino events, extending the maps back in time, with hope of determining if the El Nino-induced hotspot appeared regularly during Decembers from the 1950s through the 1970s. The first official El Nino was in 1951/52. Knowing that the spatial coverage of South Pacific SST measurements is extremely poor, I would first use the KNMI Climate Explorer to create a map of ICOADS SST anomalies for December 1951. ICOADS is short for International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set. The KNMI link for the COADS data will bring you to the ICOADS 2 Degree webpage here:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.coads.2deg.html

ICOADS SST data is the basis for the SST reconstructions available through the Hadley Centre and NCDC. The NCDC uses the data for its ERSST.v2 and ERSST.v3b datasets:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/ersstv3.php

The Hadley Centre’s HADSST2 data is also based on COADS data until 1998:
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadsst2/

And here the Hadley Centre notes that the ICOADS data is used to supplement their Met Office Marine Data Bank (MDB) used in their HADISST dataset:
http://www.ncof.gov.uk/hadisst/index.html

And here’s a paper that says that MDB data is a part of COADS:
ftp://ftp.wmo.int/Documents/PublicWeb/amp/mmop/documents/JCOMM-TR/J-TR-13-Marine-Climatology/REV1/joc1166.pdf

As illustrated in Figure 2, the COADS SST data for December 1951 is sparse, very much so in the South Pacific. Based on the poor data distribution, is it possible to determine if the December South Pacific hotspot was a reoccurring effect of El Nino events, at least in 1951? Possibly. If I looked at the SST anomaly patterns presented by the reconstructions, I would have to assume that the assumptions made by the researchers while preparing their reconstructions represented reality.
http://i46.tinypic.com/15zm49f.png
Figure 2

LOADS OF INFILLING

But for this post, I decided to take a look at what the individual datasets (ERSST.v2, ERSST.v3b, HADSST2, and HADISST) actually showed for December during the El Nino years since 1951. What follows are simple visual comparisons—nothing statistical—just visuals. Figure 3 illustrates maps of the South Pacific SST anomalies for December 1951 for each of those four datasets. Also illustrated is the COADS data in the upper left-hand corner. The NCDC’s ERSST.v2 occupies the left-center cell, and their ERSST.v3b the right-center cell. The Hadley Centre’s two datasets occupy the lower cells, with HADISST on the left and HADSST2 on the lower right. The Hadley Centre HADSST2 data appears to be a 5-degree grid version of the 2-degree grid COADS data, with the missing data clearly visible.
http://i49.tinypic.com/4t4mrr.png
Figure 3

One thing for sure, the El Nino-induced hotspot in the mid-to-high latitudes of the South Pacific exists in all four of the reconstruction datasets in December 1951. The patterns vary, but the hotspots are there.

Note the differences in the patterns between the NCDC’s ERSST datasets and the two datasets from the Hadley Centre, however. The NCDC’s areas of positive and negative anomalies are much better defined when compared to the HADISST data. Also note that the HADSST2 data does not infill like the others. Is one better? Impossible to say.

Referring to Figure 3, I always find it remarkable that the NCDC and Hadley Centre can infill that much missing data. There may be other variables employed, but they are not discussed in the overviews. Also, the one month snapshots are deceiving. The researchers can also infill over time. That is, readings from the months before and after December 1951 could be used to help infill the missing data, especially if the coverage differed. If we look at South Pacific COADS data for the 5-month period from October 1951 to February 1952, (including two months before and after December 1951), Figure 4, the spatial coverage is much better, though there are still large areas of missing data. And whether there is a hotspot there would be a matter of debate.
http://i46.tinypic.com/2vafs7t.png
Figure 4

Papers can be found through the links above for discussions of the methods employed by the researchers. And as discussed in those papers, the methods used in the reconstructions do differ, so in that respect, the SST patterns that result from the infilling reflect the researchers’ beliefs on how SST anomalies should respond in certain conditions.

PRE-SATELLITE ERA SST ANOMALY PATTERNS – 1957 TO 1977
Again, for example, I produced maps for each of the datasets for the December South Pacific SST anomalies during El Nino events, to see if we could determine if the South Pacific hotspot was a reoccurring effect of ENSO. Figures 5 through 12 are for the period of 1957 to 1977. The satellite-based SST data begins in 1979, so this data represents the 20+ years prior to then. The ONI Index was used as reference for “full-fledged” El Nino events. While there are differences in the patterns from El Nino to El Nino and between the datasets, and if we assume that the reconstructions represent actual South Pacific SST anomalies, it could easily be stated that the hotspot presently being experienced is not unusual.

Also, note the differences between the first and second years of the multiyear 1968/69/70 El Nino, but the similarities between the first and second years of the multiyear 1976/77/78 El Nino.
http://i46.tinypic.com/2unub02.png
Figure 5 - 1957
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Figure 6 - 1963
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Figure 7 - 1965
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http://i50.tinypic.com/9h0sck.png
Figure 8 - 1968
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http://i47.tinypic.com/3322f44.png
Figure 9 - 1969
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http://i47.tinypic.com/32zuomt.png
Figure 10 - 1972
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http://i46.tinypic.com/bjbszo.png
Figure 11 - 1976
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Figure 12 - 1977

SATELLITE ERA SST ANOMALY PATTERNS – 1982 TO 2006

For the satellite era comparisons, Figures 13 through 21, I’ve also added NCDC OI.v2 SST anomaly maps to the graphics, in the upper right-hand cell. Not surprisingly, the SST anomaly patterns of the OI.v2 and HADISST data tend to agree. And in most cases, the patterns of the very fragmented HADSST2 data appear to agree with those of the two satellite-based datasets.

But note the disagreement between the NCDC’s ERSST datasets and the satellite-based data. It almost appears that the methods used by the NCDC suppress negative anomalies and amplify positive anomalies, many times changing the appearance of the pattern by doing so. This was the unusual finding of this post.

And again, as in my earlier discussion of the South Pacific Hot Spot, the hotspot does not appear as consistently between the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Nino events. Is this a result of volcanic aerosols from the eruptions of El Chichon and Mount Pinatubo?
http://i45.tinypic.com/29qi440.png
Figure 13 - 1982
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http://i50.tinypic.com/jrxlw6.png
Figure 14 - 1986
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http://i50.tinypic.com/16k767p.png
Figure 15 - 1987
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http://i45.tinypic.com/346t8r8.png
Figure 16 - 1991
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http://i45.tinypic.com/f44ks7.png
Figure 17 - 1994
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http://i47.tinypic.com/650ugn.png
Figure 18 - 1997
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http://i46.tinypic.com/iyikjo.png
Figure 19 - 2002
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http://i50.tinypic.com/103z8li.png
Figure 20 - 2004
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http://i45.tinypic.com/1zdq5cg.png
Figure 21 - 2006

Not all of the datasets have been updated for December 2009, which is why I have not presented it here.

A QUICK LOOK AT SOUTH PACIFIC TIME-SERIES GRAPHS
Though this is a post about SST patterns, there are those who would be interested in seeing a comparison time-series graph of the various datasets. Figure 22 is that spaghetti graph, showing the South Pacific SST anomalies and trends for the various SST datasets from January 1950 to April 2007, which is when the COADS data on the KNMI Climate Explorer ends. As illustrated, the year-to-year variations are similar for all of the datasets, but there are substantial differences in the trends. The linear trend of the HADSST2 data almost doubles that of the HADISST data. Some of that additional variability in the HADSST2 data resulted when the Hadley Centre changed SST data suppliers in 1998. The switch created a step change in the HADSST2 data that does not exist in the other datasets. Refer to The Step Change in HADSST Data After the 1997/98 El Nino and in Met Office Prediction: “Climate could warm to record levels in 2010”.

The upward step changes in South Pacific SST anomalies that occurred in the late 1970s (the Great Pacific Climate Shift) and after the 1997/98 El Nino are very obvious.
http://i50.tinypic.com/w990lf.png
Figure 22

And in Figure 23, I’ve added the NCDC’s OI.v2 SST data to the spaghetti graph of shorter-term SST anomaly data for the South Pacific. Note that the two satellite-based SST datasets, HADISST and OI.v2, have significantly lower trends than the other datasets. The third lowest was the ERSST.v3b.
http://i47.tinypic.com/3005csw.png
Figure 23

CLOSING

I started this post off by saying it really would not prove anything; it would simply illustrate very basic facts about Sea Surface Temperature (SST) reconstructions. And it did illustrate something well known to many: that the SST sampling is poor in decades past and, putting aside satellite measurement which is excluded purposely in some datasets, SST sampling really didn’t get any better until recently.

Where did we wind up with the South Pacific hotspot?

Even if we were to rely solely on one-month (December) snapshots of the raw ICOADS data for the period before the satellite era, upper left-hand corner cells in Figures 5 through 12, it appears as though the hotspots in the South Pacific were a regular December phenomenon during El Nino events.

What should also be apparent is that when studying SST data outside of the shipping lanes, one is relying on infilled data and on the assumptions made by the researchers to infill the missing data. And as you will note, there are differences in patterns between datasets.

SOURCE

SST anomaly data and maps are available through the KNMI Climate Explorer:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere