tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post5852012724959861057..comments2023-07-29T05:11:23.558-04:00Comments on Climate Observations: OHC Linear Trends and Recent Update of NODC OHC (0-700 Meters) DataBob Tisdalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-6049725150548504892010-02-14T09:25:32.872-05:002010-02-14T09:25:32.872-05:00Andykn: You wrote, “It's unclear if James Hans...Andykn: You wrote, “It's unclear if James Hansen predicted a monotonic rise like your grpah suggest or just that the heat content would reach a certain point by a certain time.”<br /><br />I just notified Roger Pielke Sr that many of his older links no longer worker. I believe he changed hosts recently. I’m trying to get you links to the derivation of the GISS projection.<br /><br />You wrote, “Assuming that the GISS projection was based on the early 90s to early 2000 rise, if they'd predicted that in the early 90s wouldn't you have used the same (faulty) logic to show that the graph didn't support this. I suspect the faulty logic being that the predictions are for longer timeframes. As the rises on your graph clearly show.”<br /><br />I discussed the reasons for the divergence between the OHC observations and the GISS projections here:<br />http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/10/why-are-ohc-observations-0-700m.html<br />Basically, Hansen et al (2005)failed to account for the effects of ENSO, (they acknowledge that in the paper) and since they didn't account for ENSO, is it safe to assume the Model E used in Hansen et al (2005) did not account for the effects of other variables that impact OHC, like the AMO, NAO, NPI? <br /><br />RegardsBob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-7202463871504440342010-02-14T06:27:24.007-05:002010-02-14T06:27:24.007-05:001. It's unclear if James Hansen predicted a mo...1. It's unclear if James Hansen predicted a monotonic rise like your grpah suggest or just that the heat content would reach a certain point by a certain time.<br /><br />2. Assuming that the GISS projection was based on the early 90s to early 2000 rise, if they'd predicted that in the early 90s wouldn't you have used the same (faulty) logic to show that the graph didn't support this. I suspect the faulty logic being that the predictions are for longer timeframes. As the rises on your graph clearly show.andyknnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-9392044151148145142010-02-09T10:42:28.963-05:002010-02-09T10:42:28.963-05:00andykn: You wrote, "Wouldn't you have bee...andykn: You wrote, "Wouldn't you have been saying exactly the same 20 years ago? And look what happened after that."<br /><br />Please clarify the subject matter of your question.Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-81907290580874773202010-02-09T06:47:32.314-05:002010-02-09T06:47:32.314-05:00Wouldn't you have been saying exactly the same...Wouldn't you have been saying exactly the same 20 years ago? And look what happened after that.<br /><br />Was "GISS" projection monotonic like you've shown in the graph?andyknnoreply@blogger.com