tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post3038909885068022526..comments2023-07-29T05:11:23.558-04:00Comments on Climate Observations: Supplement To ENSO Is A Major Component Of Sea Level RiseBob Tisdalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-7933702666243573222009-09-14T19:54:33.585-04:002009-09-14T19:54:33.585-04:00Hi Bob -
Another ramdom question - do you have an...Hi Bob -<br /><br />Another ramdom question - do you have any good articles on the AMO? A search turns up a lot of data, and I'm curious what you'd recommend as a good primer.<br /><br />I read the post you made about the Atlantic Ocean being by far the largest component of the temperature trend the past 30 years and found it quite interesting. I'd love to learn more.<br /><br />Is the basic concept the Atlantic will warm for another 10-ish years or so, then begin to switch back? Has anyone really taken the AMO into account in models?<br /><br />I'm a fountain of questions. Apologies if it is a bother.Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-62435417809682011592009-09-14T16:50:12.545-04:002009-09-14T16:50:12.545-04:00Anonymous: I had to read the following sentence t...Anonymous: I had to read the following sentence that Bill Illis wrote a few times to realize what he'd said. He wrote, "A regression of the Nino 3.4 region on global temperatures results in = 0.07 * Nino 3.4 anomaly of 3 months previous." <br /><br />In other words, if there is a rise in NINO3.4 SST anomalies of 1 deg C, global temperatures will rise 0.07 deg C three months later. <br /><br />The global response varies with the study, I've seen responses as high as 0.092 deg C in global temp per 1 deg C in NINO3.4 SST anomaly, and the lag can vary from 3 to 6 months. <br /><br />The other thing to consider in Bill's comment is that ENSO neutral conditions run from -0.5 to +0.5 deg C, so he must be subtracting 0.5 deg C from the forecasted NINO3.4 SST anomalies and multiplying the remainder by the 0.07 deg C global response to NINO3.4 SST anomaly coefficient.Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-30489354487425233772009-09-14T15:14:21.502-04:002009-09-14T15:14:21.502-04:00I notice over at Lucia's that there was a comm...I notice over at Lucia's that there was a comment by Bob Illis in the recent El Nino thread about the effect on Nino on global temperature, at least in the short term. Does this jive with your understanding? It seems rather small. <br /><br />---------<br /><br />Let’s compare the Nino region anomalies for the same time of year between this El Nino and the 1997-98 Super El Nino.<br /><br />Week Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4<br /><br />10SEP1997 4.0 3.0 2.3 0.8<br />09SEP2009 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8<br /><br />They are not really close. This El Nino is only about 1/4 the strength of the 1997-98 one at the same time of year. There is a definitive seasonal signal to the ENSO with about 80% of El Ninos/La Ninas peaking in the November to January period.<br /><br />A regression of the Nino 3.4 region on global temperatures results in = 0.07 * Nino 3.4 anomaly of 3 months previous.<br /><br />So, global early-December temperatures will only be about 0.056C higher than they would have been with neutral Nino conditions. ie, hard to measure and very hard to notice. <br /><br />The Tropics regression is about = 0.2 * Nino 3.4 anomaly of 2.5 months previous.<br /><br />So, the Tropics will have slightly higher late-November temperatures but it will also be very hard for anyone to notice.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-24708742980689478962009-09-14T13:19:47.589-04:002009-09-14T13:19:47.589-04:00Thanks Bob.
I just found the rises in Sept a bit ...Thanks Bob.<br /><br />I just found the rises in Sept a bit odd given ocean temps have been declining the past two weeks. I guess it's all about various lags and when they hit. <br /><br />We had a huge jump in OST in what, June-ish? I wonder if that is now being reflected in the atmosphere.<br /><br />No need to respond, just ruminating. :)Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-89896492474739068802009-09-14T12:23:10.929-04:002009-09-14T12:23:10.929-04:00Sorry, John, I don't keep track of it. Lucia o...Sorry, John, I don't keep track of it. Lucia over at the Blackboard does keep an eye on it, though. <br />http://rankexploits.com/musings/Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-67376317772291920102009-09-14T10:57:19.423-04:002009-09-14T10:57:19.423-04:00Hi Bob -
I know you are an ocean guy, but do you...Hi Bob - <br /><br />I know you are an ocean guy, but do you have any comments on why the UAH september anomalies to date are so high? They are exceptionally above recent years and well over 1 degree F above the 30 year trend. Seems to be the brewing of record breaking month, perhaps.<br /><br />Is this the El Nino being reflected in the atmospheric temperature? It seems the the El Nino is a bit weak to creat such a large jump ...Johnnoreply@blogger.com