tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post1751128237314118502..comments2023-07-29T05:11:23.558-04:00Comments on Climate Observations: Regression Analyses Do Not Capture The Multiyear Aftereffects Of Significant El Nino EventsBob Tisdalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-72454345402608009632009-08-08T19:08:15.619-04:002009-08-08T19:08:15.619-04:00From Colin Aldridge
I better go read them then!! ...From Colin Aldridge<br /><br />I better go read them then!! Many thankscolin Aldridgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-61539718796827238492009-08-08T09:56:02.529-04:002009-08-08T09:56:02.529-04:00Colin Aldridge: I wrote two posts on the subject o...Colin Aldridge: I wrote two posts on the subject of Recharging the Pacific Warm Pool:<br />http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/11/recharging-pacific-warm-pool.html<br /><br />And<br />http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/02/recharging-pacific-warm-pool-part-2.htmlBob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-52440346636092872472009-08-08T07:08:31.712-04:002009-08-08T07:08:31.712-04:00Bob .. Is there any explanation for why/ how the s...Bob .. Is there any explanation for why/ how the sub surface warm water pool gets "recharged/ reheated" after it warms the ocean surface during an El Nino. Obviously? the sub surface water must cool as a result of it rising to the surface .. Colin AColin Aldridgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-82270690455560738122009-08-02T18:42:08.715-04:002009-08-02T18:42:08.715-04:00Anonymous (August 2, 2009 5:31 AM): With the exce...Anonymous (August 2, 2009 5:31 AM): With the exception of one point, I have addressed all of your arguments in this post and the ones linked to it. I've shown with videos of actual conditions, with graphs of actual data from specific ocean areas why your arguments fail. You apparently did not bother to read and comprehend all that was written and illustrated in all of those posts, because if you had, you would not have written what you've written. <br /><br />What I have not explained in any post so far is that La Nina events are not the opposite of El Nino events. <br /><br />During a significant El Nino, trade winds relax and warm waters from the Western Equatorial Pacific and from below the surface of the Pacific Warm Pool slosh to the east. The current that carries the water at this stage is the Equatorial Counter Current. It is small to non-existent during La Nina and ENSO-neutral periods. While the water is being carried east by the Equatorial Counter Current, the North and South Equatorial Currents still exist and they carry the warm water that had traveled east back in the opposite direction, westward, where it enters the other currents of the Northern and Southern Pacific Gyres. These carry the warm water away from the tropics, toward the mid latitudes. <br /><br />At the end of the El Nino, the trade winds resume, and the Pacific Equatorial Counter Current relaxes. The North and South Equatorial Currents return to the area that had been occupied by the Equatorial Counter Current during the El Nino. This change in direction of equatorial flow takes what remains of warm water that had traveled east during the El Nino and returns it to the west and the Pacific Warm Pool. <br /><br />During the La Nina, convection, total cloud amount, and precipitation follow the warmer water west and the trade winds increase as the warmer water and convection travels farther west. This raises the thermocline in the eastern Pacific, raising lower temperature waters to the surface, increasing the temperature gradient from west to east, which increases the strength of the trade winds. The La Nina occurs when and because the coupled atmosphere-ocean processes overreact during the quest for a normal state. <br /><br />In effect, the La Nina is only an exaggeration of the “normal” ENSO-neutral state.Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-64467763848726812302009-08-02T05:31:31.401-04:002009-08-02T05:31:31.401-04:00The Nino system is as you portray effectively redi...The Nino system is as you portray effectively redisributes heat of the Pacific ocean and cleary an El Nino not only causes heating in the eastern pacific it also prevents the cooling here causing upto a 0.2C temperature shift for the globe if 1998 is anything to go by. <br /><br />It is a cycle though and during La Nina the cooling influence is increased.<br /><br />Clealy for the system to be causal for the current rise in temperature it would have had to go into a phase where El-Nino predominated and heat previously stored (from ?when) became disipated into the surface system to attenuate the overall surface temperatures. That is it would have to act as if an additional external forcing to be casual for the late 20th temperature rise.<br /><br />This is not the case as shown by the paper you quote and all your explanation shows is what is already known i.e that acutely an El Nino can add 0.2C to the average global temperatures, however as pointed to this is balanced by the cycles of the Nino system and this balance would have to have changed since the early 1970's for this to be a significant cause of gloabal warming.<br /><br />And it hasn't and isn't and as the paper in GEo.REs.Let. demonstrates less than 0.02C can possible be attributed to changes in the El-Nino system and with the recent La Nina this is even less.<br /><br />You have to look for long trends in the system not just show how it heats acutely.<br /><br />Of course the extra heat being pushed into the oceans by the GHG effect (and please don't say that doesn't exist e.g. H2O), is changing the telecommunications system via NAO variations and it is unclear how this effect things.<br /><br />From recent ananlysis it seems that the heat dissipation system that is the teleconnections system was causing rapid warming between 20's-50's then slow warming from the 50-80, then fast from 80-2003ish and then slow again from 2003-2009, just like a choatic system would be expected to do as the external heat forcing increased.<br /><br />Its about to change again i suspect due to the rapid melting arctic sea ice and this effects on the telecommunications systems and the expanding tropics and moving jetstreams.<br /><br />June was the second warmest ever!<br /><br />2005 hottest = year and 2006feb 2007feb hottest twelve month period ever.<br /><br />And all monthly tops have been in the last 10 years when we should have been cooling due to natural forcings (sunspots and Nina trends).<br /><br />Now as you provide to evidence that the Nino system is causing a prolonged heating due to chang ein its nature, only that acute El Nino events do (as is well known) think i'll tend to go with the thorough and peer reviewed findings in the paper you quote as the real additional heatring caused overall by the El-Nino La Nino system, that is there hasn't been any.<br /><br />cheersAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-4291995973874784252009-07-28T19:43:16.689-04:002009-07-28T19:43:16.689-04:00Kevin Kilty: You wrote, "I wonder if in addit...Kevin Kilty: You wrote, "I wonder if in addition to redistributing stored heat, the El Nino is not also increasing and perhaps redistributing water vapor for a substantial period of time which I imagine to have a substantial effect on winter-time and night-time temperatures. Any thoughts to share?"<br /><br />El Nino events change atmospheric circulation patterns, precipitation, cloud cover and amount. They shift jet streams which would in turn change the locations of clouds and precipitation. <br /><br />If water vapor varies with SST, then an upward step in SST anomalies of the North Atlantic, East Indian, and West Pacific Oceans should cause a shift in water vapor. Have I plotted it? Nope.Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-47283884128335115962009-07-28T17:04:56.370-04:002009-07-28T17:04:56.370-04:00Bob Tisdale;
Your analysis is quite interesting a...Bob Tisdale;<br /><br />Your analysis is quite interesting and leads to the following comment and question. Fifteen years ago I tried to get funded a project to analyze absolute humidity trends, changes in sources, and the resulting effect on global temperature trends. Nobody bit on that one. However, your weblog about after-effects brought this proposal to mind again. I wonder if in addition to redistributing stored heat, the El Nino is not also increasing and perhaps redistributing water vapor for a substantial period of time which I imagine to have a substantial effect on winter-time and night-time temperatures. Any thoughts to share?Kevin Kiltynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-31453727395239142232009-07-27T18:49:37.962-04:002009-07-27T18:49:37.962-04:00Anonymous: You wrote, "So the East Pacific is...Anonymous: You wrote, "So the East Pacific is a huge reservoir of heat. And the big El Niños release it."<br /><br />The reservoir (Pacific Warm Pool) is in the Western Pacific.<br /><br />Projections are for a moderate El Nino.<br /><br />I'm skeptical of anthropogenic global warming.Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-13985309354678362072009-07-27T18:01:01.939-04:002009-07-27T18:01:01.939-04:00So the East Pacific is a huge reservoir of heat. A...So the East Pacific is a huge reservoir of heat. And the big El Niños release it. Then I have 2 questions:<br /><br />1) Do you think that there will be a huge 2009/2010 El Niño?. I am from Peru, and here the big El Niños are the most important climatic fenomena (and the most disastrous)<br /><br />2)You are skeptic of the greenhouse warming theory, or you simply state that all that heat trapped by greenhouse gases is stored under pacific waters, and then suddenly and periodically released to the atmosphere?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com