tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post1071325207081832077..comments2023-07-29T05:11:23.558-04:00Comments on Climate Observations: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index ReconstructionBob Tisdalehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-13757981202970554002009-12-17T07:01:08.691-05:002009-12-17T07:01:08.691-05:00Anonymous: In my earlier comment I noted that you...Anonymous: In my earlier comment I noted that you should plot the individual proxies used by Kaufman et al, because they illustrated something entirely different than the average, which Kaufman present. No need for you to do it. I've done it in my most recent post.<br />http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/12/look-at-individual-proxies-used-in.html<br /><br />Thanks for the idea.<br /><br />Regarding your Mann reference and links, personally I feel his manipulation of data has reached comical levels. If you were to read the multiple posts at Climate Audit, you may come to the same conclusion.<br /><br />RegardsBob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-86014534542749405232009-12-17T00:03:52.142-05:002009-12-17T00:03:52.142-05:00I said:
"Then the last 100 yers completely br...I said:<br />"Then the last 100 yers completely broke the trend, and now the Arctic Region is more than 1,5°C warmer than the temperatures expected in the area according to the 200-year trend."<br /><br />I wanted to say:<br />"Then the last 100 years completely broke the trend, and now the Arctic Region is more than 1,5°C warmer than the temperatures expected in the area according to the 2000-year trend."(I just mistyped "200-year trend" instead of "2000-year trend")<br /><br />A nice review of the last Mann et al. paper can be found at:<br />http://www.skepticalscience.com/Was-there-a-Medieval-Warm-Period.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-49593047598518495942009-12-16T22:02:27.393-05:002009-12-16T22:02:27.393-05:00Bill Illis: Thanks for the link. The HADSST3 in ...Bill Illis: Thanks for the link. The HADSST3 in Slide 21 shows yet another increase after 1997/98, which would cause their data to be a bigger outlier in recent years. It will be interesting to plot the new data against NINO3.4 SST anomalies to see if global SST anomalies better represent the response to NINO3.4 SST variations during the 1930s to 1960s.<br /><br />Thanks again.Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-79782871928274699312009-12-16T21:43:49.385-05:002009-12-16T21:43:49.385-05:00Nice post Bob.
Have a look at this presentation g...Nice post Bob.<br /><br />Have a look at this presentation given by Phil Jones in Boulder last June.<br /><br />Two points; <br /><br />Slide 21 shows the new HadSST3 corrections again - they look a little higher post-1944 than the others we have seen - any thoughts?<br /><br />The corrections in the data pre-1940; it looks like the raw SST measurements were much, much lower in the past (and have been adjusted upward); do you know what the reason(s) for this are? <br /><br />http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/symposium/061909presentations/Jones_Boulder_june2009.pptBill illisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-24412685048169331242009-12-16T20:17:59.876-05:002009-12-16T20:17:59.876-05:00Anonymous 12:34PM: You concluded your comment wit...Anonymous 12:34PM: You concluded your comment with, "Now is crystal clear that something really unprecedented in 2000 year-long Arctic climate happened in the last 100 years."<br /><br />Really? I believe if you plot the individual proxies used by your referenced Kaufman et al (2009) you might have a different opinion.<br /><br />There's a spreadsheet down towards the bottom of the following webpage:<br />http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/kaufman2009/kaufman2009.htmlBob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-54112353296058198252009-12-16T12:34:34.877-05:002009-12-16T12:34:34.877-05:00Well, this natural variability pattern were much s...Well, this natural variability pattern were much stronger in the past.<br /><br />Then, if you go to the Arctic, the paper "Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling" by Kaufman et al.(2009), show that there was a robust cooling trend in the last 2000 years with VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY, that is,not only the AMO, PDO and AO had had little impact in Arctic temperatures for the last 2000 years, there isn´t even a hint of the LIA and "Medieval Warm Period" in the recontructed temperatures.<br /><br />Then the last 100 yers completely broke the trend, and now the Arctic Region is more than 1,5°C warmer than the temperatures expected in the area according to the 200-year trend.<br /><br />NOTE: the last paper of Mann et al. "Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly (Mann et al 2009) shows that:<br />1]) the "MWP" was not a Global Warming event, as the warming affected the North Atlantic Area(so, it impacted European and North American temperatures), but...<br />2) there was WIDESPREAD COOLING ELSEWERE, specially in the Tropical Pacific, thanks to a protracted dominant La Niña pattern(so it isn´t surprising to have strong warming in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, as La Niña concentrated the warm Pacific waters there)<br /><br />Now is crystal clear that something really unprecedented in 2000 year-long Arctic climate happened in the last 100 years.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-14847051189094872762009-12-16T11:49:03.942-05:002009-12-16T11:49:03.942-05:00Anonymous 9:50AM: FYI, the Perlwitz et al (2009) p...Anonymous 9:50AM: FYI, the Perlwitz et al (2009) paper was discussed at WUWT a couple of weeks ago:<br />http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/07/noaa-paper-north-american-2008-cooling-attributed-to-natural-causes/<br /><br />The link to the full paper:<br />http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009GL041188.pdf<br /><br />I did leave a comment in the thread that read:<br /><br />Leif: Thanks for the link to Perlwitz et al (2009). Their Figures 1, 2, 3 and 4 illustrate how poorly the models reproduce the observed decadal trends and annual variations. They then twist the logic somehow to, “North American temperatures would have been considerably colder in 2008 had there been no human-induced warming influence present.”Bob Tisdalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15462377647970214137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2220966763638300672.post-69668125721725132542009-12-16T09:50:03.814-05:002009-12-16T09:50:03.814-05:00Bob
I read this via a paper liniked through Roger...Bob<br /><br />I read this via a paper liniked through Roger Pielke's blog:<br /><br />The results of our modeling study indicate that the 2008 NA cooling can be mainly attributed to the<br />observed SST anomalies, and in particular to the local cooling of the tropical Pacific SST(especially the Niño 4 region) associated with natural variability of the climate system.<br />Our appraisal of the natural SST conditions in the Niño 4 region, with anomalies of about -1.1K suggests a condition colder than any in the instrumental record since 1871.<br /><br />Paper quoted is "A strong bout of natural cooling in 2008" Judith Perlwitz et al<br /><br />Comments/ observations please?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com