I’ve moved to WordPress: http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

I Moved

I moved my website

Bob Tisdale

Click the link above.

Please update your favorites and blogrolls.

See ya there.

Monday, March 28, 2011



Blogger has repaired the problems I was seeing, but I had been wanting to switch over to WordPress and the temporary problems provided the prompt.


I’m not sure what blogger has done. But I can no longer write a post in MS Word, copy and paste what I’ve written into blogger, and have blogger retain the format. I lose all line breaks, paragraphs, etc. Adding illustrations in the format I’ve always used has turned into a nightmare.

Hopefully, this is a temporary problem, because right now I’m not having fun. I try html paragraph breaks and line breaks, but blogger now double spaces everything.


Saturday, March 26, 2011

Miscellaneous Graphs

I’ve moved to WordPress. This post can now be found at Miscellaneous Graphs


This post is simply a place for me to post graphs that I refer to or link often, or foresee the need to in the future. This way I don’t have to go searching for them.

Annual North Pacific SST Anomalies North of 20N (HADISST) Link: http://i55.tinypic.com/30svapu.jpg
That’s for the area of the North Pacific used in the PDO. Note the shift in the late 1980s. That should correspond to a shift in the North Pacific Sea Level Pressure. It also impacted Ocean Heat Content for that area, and was discussed in North Pacific Ocean Heat Content Shift In The Late 1980s. %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies With Linear Trend (HADISST) Link: http://i56.tinypic.com/2ag0u2u.jpg
There’s basically no trend.
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Smoothed With a 121-Month Filter (HADISST) Link: http://i43.tinypic.com/33agh3c.jpg
Yes, there’s multidecadal variations to ENSO.

Friday, March 25, 2011

ARGO-Era NODC Ocean Heat Content Data (0-700 Meters) Through December 2010

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at ARGO-Era NODC Ocean Heat Content Data (0-700 Meters) Through December 2010
NOTE: This post contains 5 .gif animations that total 10MB. Have patience. They may take a while to load.This post is a follow-up to the recent post October to December 2010 NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700Meters) Update and Comments. I wanted to discuss the ARGO-based period separately.

For those new to ARGO, under the heading of “What is Argo?”, the University of California, San Diego Argo webpage describes Argo as a “global array of 3,000 free-drifting profiling floats that measures the temperature and salinity of the upper 2000 m of the ocean.” The UCSD Argo website provides much more information, including an argo.avi video.

Much of the data in this post is supplied by ARGO for the upper 700 meters.

The NOAA NCEP webapge that presents the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) Input data distributions (1979-present) (Plots) allows users to plot the number of Temperature profiles at different depths for the globe, or for the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans. An example of Global data for depths of 250 to 500 meters is shown in Figure 1. According to it, ARGO floats have been in use since the early 1990s, but they had very limited use until the late 1990s. ARGO use began to rise then, and in 2003, ARGO-based temperature readings at depth became dominant. Based on that, I’ll use January 2003 as the start month for the “ARGO-era” in this post.

Figure 1

Note the significant drop in samples in 2010. I have not found an explanation for this.

The NCEP GODAS Input data (Plots) webpage also allows visitors to create maps of temperature profile locations. Animation 1 is a gif animation that shows the annual data locations from 1979 to 2004. The measurements made with Expendable Bathythermographs (XBTs) are shown in red (x), the moored buoys that are parts of the TAO/ TRITON (Pacific) and PIRATA (Atlantic) projects are shown in green (+), and the blue (o) are ARGO-based measurements. Note how sparse the data is in the Southern Hemisphere prior to the early 2000s, especially south of 30S.
Animation 1

Unfortunately, GODAS switched map formats in 2005 and again in 2006, so an animation that included the three map formats would be difficult to watch. The format used in 2005 is unlike those in use before or after, so I’ve excluded it in both animations. Animation 2 shows the Monthly temperature profile locations from January 2006 to December 2010. Note the decline in sampling in 2009/10, especially in the Indian Ocean. Why? Dunno.
Animation 2

In past posts, when I’ve compared the NODC Global Ocean Heat Content to GISS projections, I’ve used the rate of 0.98*10^22 Joules per year for the GISS projection. This value was based on Roger Pielke Sr’s February 2009 post Update On A Comparison Of Upper Ocean Heat Content Changes With The GISS Model Predictions. The recent RealClimate posts Updates to model-data comparisons and 2010 updates to model-data comparisons have presented the projections based on Gavin Schmidt extending a linear trend of the GISS Model-ER simulations past 2003. The linear trends in both graphs are approximately 0.7*10^22 Joules per year. I’ll use this value in the comparison, but first a few more notes.

Gavin writes in the 2009 post, “Unfortunately, I don’t have the post-2003 model output handy, but the comparison between the 3-monthly data (to the end of Sep) and annual data versus the model output is still useful,” and he continues, “I have linearly extended the ensemble mean model values for the post 2003 period (using a regression from 1993-2002) to get a rough sense of where those runs could have gone.”

The only paper that I’m aware of in which GISS presented their simulations of Ocean Heat Content was Hansen et al (2005) “Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications”. Science, 308, 1431-1435, doi:10.1126/science.1110252 (PDF). In it, they only presented their data from 1993 to 2003. Refer to their Figure 2 (not illustrated in this post).

For those who might be concerned that extending the linear trend does not represent the actual model simulations, refer to Page 8 of the .pdf file GISS ModelE: MAP Objectives and Results. The graph there presents two GISS OHC Model E simulations, one with the Russell Ocean model, the other with the HYCOM Ocean model. The simulations run to 2010 for both models. Do they extend further into the future? And for those who want to attempt to duplicate that comparison of the Model-ER and Model-EH versus the early NODC OHC data, the NODC OHC data (older version) was based on the 2005 Levitus paper “The Warming Of The World Ocean: 1955 to 2003” (Manuscript). Link for the 0 - 700 meters data.

Back to the comparison of the ARGO-era OHC data and the GISS Projection: The most recent version of the NODC OHC data is linked here for 0 - 700 meters. I’ve compared it for the period of 2003-2010 to the GISS projection in Figure 2. Note that I’ve shifted the data down so that it starts at zero in 2003. The GISS projection of 0.7*10^22 Joules per year dwarfs the linear trend of the ARGO-era NODC OHC data. No surprise there.
Figure 2

The remainder of the data in this post was downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer Monthly observations webpage. The NODC OHC data there is presented in Gigajoules per square meter (GJ/m^2), not the units (10^22 Joules) provided by NODC. That’s why the scale and trends in Figures 2 and 3 are different. The NODC also provides their OHC data on a quarterly basis, but KNMI presents it as monthly data, thus allowing for comparisons to other monthly datasets. This is why the OHC data appears in 3-month tiers in Figures 3, 4 and 5.

Figure 3 shows the Global NODC OHC data for the period of January 2003 to December 2010. Comparing its linear trend (0.19 GJ/m^2 per Century) to the trend of the long-term data from 1955 to 2002 shown in Figure 4 (0.52 GJ/m^2 per Century), there has been a significant flattening of the Global OHC data in recent years. And this flattening was not anticipated by the GISS models, which show a continuous rise through 2010.
Figure 3
Figure 4

Of course, the oceans are not warming uniformly. Refer to Figure 5. The trends for the North Pacific and the Southern Oceans are basically flat. The only two ocean basins with major increases in OHC during the ARGO era are the South Atlantic and the Indian Oceans, while the North Atlantic, Arctic, and South Pacific Oceans show significant declines in OHC.
Figure 5

Note: The coordinates for the ocean basins are:
North Atlantic = 0-75N, 78W-10E
South Atlantic = 60S-0, 70W-20E
Indian = 60S-30N, 20E-120E
North Pacific = 0-65N, 120E-90W
South Pacific = 60S-0, 120E-70W
Arctic = 65N-90N
Southern = 90S-60S


Figure 6 is a map that displays the change in ARGO-era OHC, from 2003 to 2010. It was created by using 2003 as the base year for anomalies, and plotting the annual OHC values for 2010. Much of the cooling in the North Atlantic has taken place at mid and lower latitudes. In the South Pacific, there was also a decline in the lower latitudes, but there appears to also have been a drop there at higher latitudes along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC).
Figure 6

Animations 3, 4 and 5 present the ARGO-era OHC data, using 12-month averages. The first cells are the average OHC from January to December 2003. These are followed by cells that show the period of February 2003 to January 2004 and so on, until the final cell that captures the average OHC from January to December 2010. The 12-month average reduces the noise and any seasonal component in the data. I’ve also included a graph of NINO3.4 SST anomalies (smoothed with a 12-month filter, and centered on the 6th month) since the effects of ENSO dominate the OHC data. The NINO3.4 SST anomaly graph infills with time. Animation 3 presents global maps.
Animation 3

Animation 4 is the North Pole stereographic view. Note the warming of the western tropical North Pacific during the 2007/08 La Niña. It’s tough to miss. There also appears to be a lagged decline in the North Atlantic OHC in response to the 2007/08 La Niña. Will we see a lagged increase there next year?
Animation 4

And Animation 5 is the South Pole stereographic view. Note the persistence of the warm and cool anomalies moving southward from the equatorial Pacific in waves, and also into the South Indian Ocean. I believe those would be classified as oceanic Rossby waves.
Animation 5

Watching the animations, it is very obvious that ENSO and the distribution of warm and cool waters caused by ENSO are major components of Global Ocean Heat Content. Refer to ENSO Dominates NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Data for further discussion and illustrations. OHC studies such as Hansen et al (2005), however, do not include ENSO in their models. They assume that Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases have a measurable impact on Ocean Heat Content. The impacts of the failure of GISS to include ENSO and other natural variables in their analysis was illustrated and discussed in detail in Why Are OHC Observations (0-700m) Diverging From GISS Projections?

Refer also to North Pacific Ocean Heat Content Shift In The Late 1980s and North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Is Governed By Natural Variables.

Monday, March 21, 2011

Mid-March 2011 SST Anomaly Update

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at Mid-March 2011 SST Anomaly Update
NINO3.4NINO3.4 SST anomalies for the week centered on March 12, 2011 show that central equatorial Pacific SST anomalies have resumed their rise from La Niña maximum after a minor pause. They’re at approximately -0.8 deg C.
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies - Short-Term


Weekly Global SST anomalies have been stagnant for the past few weeks, but they should resume their rise shortly in response to the end of the peak ENSO season. They are presently at +0.105 deg C.
Global SST Anomalies - Short-Term


This weekly Reynolds OI.v2 SST dataset begins in 1990. I’ve started the graphs in 2004 to make the variations visible.

SOURCEOI.v2 SST anomaly data is available through the NOAA NOMADS system:

Thursday, March 17, 2011

October to December 2010 NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700Meters) Update and Comments

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at October to December 2010 NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700Meters) Update and Comments

The National Oceanographic Data Center’s Ocean Heat Content (OHC) data for the depths of 0-700 meters are available through the KNMI Climate Explorer Monthly observations webpage. The NODC OHC dataset is based on the Levitus et al (2009) paper “Global ocean heat content(1955-2008) in light of recent instrumentation problems”, Geophysical Research Letters. Refer to Manuscript. It was revised in 2010 as noted in the October 18, 2010 post Update And Changes To NODC Ocean Heat Content Data. As described in the NODC’s explanation of ocean heat content (OHC) data changes, the changes result from “data additions and data quality control,” from a switch in base climatology, and from revised Expendable Bathythermograph (XBT) bias calculations.

This update includes the data through the quarter of October to December 2010. There has been an upswing in the Indian Ocean OHC data. And in the tropical Pacific, there’s been a delayed response to ENSO or a downward shift. Other than those, there are no other major changes with the latest 3 months on which to report.


The Global OHC data through December 2010 is shown in Figure 1. It continues to be remarkably flat, considering the rise that took place during the 1980s and 1990s.

Figure 1

In an upcoming post, I’ll present only the post-2003 data, the era when ARGO floats dominated OHC data.

I’ve changed the coordinates of the Indian Ocean and South Pacific data. The coordinates I was using for the Indian Ocean (60S-30N, 20E-145E) caused too much overlap with the North Pacific and Tropical Pacific data. So I’ve shifted the coordinates so that the Indian Ocean is now represented by 60S-30N, 20E-120E. This required that I shift the South Pacific; it’s coordinates are now 60S-0, 120E-90W.

Figure 2 illustrates the Tropical Pacific OHC data (24S-24N, 120E-90W). The major variations in tropical Pacific OHC are related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Tropical Pacific OHC drops during El Niño events and rises during La Niña events.
Figure 2

At least it should. Figure 3 compares tropical Pacific OHC to NINO3.4 SST anomalies (a commonly used ENSO proxy) where the NINO3.4 SST anomalies have been scaled and inverted (multiplied by a scaling factor of -0.15) to help show the relationship. The drop in the tropical Pacific OHC during 2010 is unusual. It should be rising (recharging) during this period. It’s impossible to tell at this time if this is a delayed response or a downward shift.
Figure 3

The equatorial Pacific, on the other hand, Figure 4, is responding as one would expect.
Figure 4

We’ll have to keep an eye on the tropical Pacific OHC data.

Figure 5 illustrates the Indian Ocean OHC data. Note the sudden upswing since 2006. It’s odd when we consider the trends for most of the other ocean basins since 2003 are flat or negative. (I’ll illustrate this in an upcoming post.)
Figure 5

The Tropical Pacific OHC dropped and the Indian Ocean OHC rose; one might think warm water has migrated from the Tropical Pacific to the Tropical Indian Ocean. If we combine the Tropical Indian and Pacific subsets and compare it to the Tropical Pacific, Figure 6, we can see the two datasets mimic one another and that the recent drop is suppressed. It’s possible (and likely) there has been some migration of warm water from one subset to the other (likely because the current known as the Indonesian Throughflow does flow between the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans).
Figure 6

In fact, this transport appears to take place in the animation of NODC OHC from 2005 to 2010, Animation 1, which was taken from the video that's included in the post The Electric Kool-Aid Ocean Heat Content Animation.
Animation 1

And here’s the YouTube video from that post. (The animation with music starts around the 2 minute mark, so check your volume setting if you’re at work.)

YouTube Link:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUONorBCcxU

But the recent rise in Indian Ocean OHC is not limited to the tropics. Figure 7 compares Indian Ocean OHC to the OHC of the Indian Ocean South of 24S. The OHC of the mid-to-high latitudes also has the sudden surge.
Figure 7

And yes, that rise and fall in the OHC of the Indian Ocean South of 24S during the late 1990s does look odd. In fact, if we smooth those two datasets, Figure 8, we can see how unusual that spike appears.
Figure 8


(9) Northern Hemisphere
(10) Southern Hemisphere
(11) North Atlantic (0 to 75N, 78W to 10E)
(12) South Atlantic (0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)
(13) North Pacific (0 to 65N, 100 to 270E, where 270E=90W)
(14) South Pacific (0 to 60S, 120E to 290E, where 290E=70W)
(15) Arctic Ocean (65 to 90N)
(16) Southern Ocean (60 to 90S)

All data used in this post is available through the KNMI Climate Explorer:

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

The Electric Kool-Aid Ocean Heat Content Animation

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at The Electric Kool-Aid Ocean Heat Content Animation
(With Apologies To Tom Wolfe For The Post Title)


UPDATE (Added Preview)

This animation has turned out but better than past attempts to animate NODC Ocean Heat Content data. The following is a preview .gif that limits the time period to 2003 to 2010, keeping the file size to about 2MB.
Preview (2003-2010)


The post includes a YouTube link to the video titled “NODC Ocean Heat Content Animation 1990-2010”. The video presents animated maps of the National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) Ocean Heat Content (OHC) data from 1990 to 2010. The data in each map has been “smoothed” with a 12-month filter to minimize noise and any seasonal component, much like a 12-month running-average filter smoothes noisy data in a graph.

Why “Electric Kool-Aid” in the title of this post? When my GIF Movie Gear software first previewed the animation, it reminded me of a background animation from a 1960s-era movie—looking like a flattened lava lamp. With that in mind, the music then seemed to fit. The music starts with the animation, not with the introductory comments, so don’t start turning up the volume, wondering where it is.

The video includes a statement about North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content (OHC) that some will want me to document. I suggested that viewers keep an eye out for “The Sea Level Pressure-Caused ‘Switch’ In High Latitude North Atlantic OHC In The Late 1990s.” This was illustrated and discussed in the post North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Is Governed By Natural Variables. That post also includes a link to Lozier et al (2008) “The Spatial Pattern and Mechanisms of Heat-Content Change in the North Atlantic”, provided again here:

The paper that describes the NODC OHC dataset is Levitus et al (2009) “Global Ocean Heat Content(1955-2008) in Light of Recent Instrumentation Problems”, Geophysical Research Letters. Link to Manuscript. And the 2010 changes were discussed in the NODC’s Explanation of Ocean Heat Content (OHC) Data Changes.

The maps were created using the KNMI Climate Explorer:

Additional discussions of the effects of natural variables on OHC:
1. ENSO Dominates NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Data

2. North Pacific Ocean Heat Content Shift In The Late 1980s

There are two pulses in the animation, one around the year 1996, the other about 2000. I believe they result from the sudden appearance of positive anomalies in the Arctic Ocean, which appear at the same time as the year markers (red dots) in the upper left-hand corner of the maps.

Enough preliminaries, here’s the video:

YouTube Link:

Friday, March 11, 2011

RSS MSU TLT Anomalies February 2011 Update and A Look At Version 3.3

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at RSS MSU TLT Anomalies February 2011 Update and A Look At Version 3.3
FEBRUARY 2011 UPDATERSS TLT anomalies continue to drop in response to the 2010/2011 La Niña. RSS MSU TLT anomalies are now at 0.051 deg C, Figure 1.
Figure 1


RSS recently updated their MSU Lower Troposphere Temperature (TLT) anomaly data with a new version, v3.3. This was discussed last month at Watts Up With That? in the post RSS global temp drops, version change adjusts cooler post 1998. At that time, RSS had not described the changes. They now have at their website on their data description webpage.

Refer to the Version Notes. Here’s what RSS has to say:
Version Notes
RSS Version 3.3 Channel TLT, TMT, TTS, and TLS – January, 2011
Change from 3.2 to 3.3:

* Additional satellites are now included in the merge. Version 3.2 only used data from one AMSU instrument, NOAA-15. For TLT, TMT, and TLS, Version 3.3 includes data from the AMSU instruments on NOAA-15, AQUA, NOAA-18, and METOP-A. AMSU channel 7 exhibits unexplained drifts in METOP-A, so for TTS, data from METOP-A is not used.

* Comparisons with other AMSU satellites are now used to detemine [sic] the AMSU merging coefficients.

* When merging MSU and AMSU together, the data for each generation of satellites is weighted by the number of satellites with valid data for that month. This has the effect of de-emphasizing MSU data after the advent of the AQUA satellite in June 2002. Since the 2002-2004 period is when there is an unexplained warming drift in MSU channel 2 data from NOAA-14 relative to AMSU data, this change has the effect of lowering the overall warming in TMT and TLT during the post 2002 period.

* The changes also result in a reduction of sampling noise and “orbital striping” for periods when data from more satellites is used.

* Data from NOAA-16 is not used because all 3 channels show unexplained drift throughout it’s [sic] lifetime. NOAA-17 was only operational for a short period of time, thus it’s [sic] data is of little use for climate studies. We plan to begin including data from NOAA-19 after 3 years of operation.

Figure 2 compares the anomaly data and linear trends of the new RSS TLT Version 3.3 to the obsolete Version 3.2. The update lowered the linear trend since 1979 from approximately 1.6 deg C to 1.5 deg C per Century, Figure 2.
Figure 2

The difference between the two datasets is shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3

Figure 4 is a .gif animation that compares the2010 anomaly maps for the new and old versions when using 1979-1980 as the base years. Basically both maps are showing the change in TLT anomalies from the average of the years 1979 and 1980 to the year 2010. The patterns for both datasets are similar, but there are minor changes in the variations.
Figure 4

The linear trends of the RSS version 3.3 and the most recent version of UAH TLT anomaly data (v5.4) are basically the same: 1.47 versus 1.44 deg C per Century. Refer to Figure 5. Note that I’ve switched to KNMI climate Explorer as the source for both datasets, so that I could limit the UAH latitudes to those used by RSS, 70S-82.5N.
Figure 5

Figure 6 shows the difference between the two datasets.
Figure 6

And Figure 7 is a gif animation similar to Figure 4, but this compares RSS (v3.3) to UAH (v5.4) TLT anomaly data.
Figure 7

I illustrated and discussed the ENSO-induced rises in the RSS MSU TLT anomalies for the data north of 20N in the post RSS MSU TLT Time-Latitude Plots... Show Climate Responses That Cannot Be Easily Illustrated With Time-Series Graphs Alone. I further discussed the likely cause for the upward steps in the post The ENSO-Related Variations In Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) SST Anomalies And Their Impact On Northern Hemisphere Temperatures.

Figure 8 illustrates Volcano-adjusted RSS TLT anomalies north of 20N in “raw” form and smoothed with a 13-month running-average filter. Also included are the period average temperature anomalies of -0.187 for 1979 to 1987, -0.016 for 1988 to 1997, and 0.268 for 1998 to present.
Figure 8

I adjusted the data for the linear effects of the two major volcanic eruptions, El Chichon and Mount Pinatubo. To determine the scaling factor for the volcanic aerosol proxy, I used a linear regression software tool (Analyse-it for Excel) with global RSS TLT anomalies (v3.3) as the dependent variable and GISS Stratospheric Aerosol Optical Thickness data (ASCII data) as the independent variable. The scaling factor determined was 2.9.

And in Figure 9 the “raw” data has been deleted to help show the ENSO-induced upward steps in this dataset. So the revisions have not changed these to any great extent, so I won't go back and update the earlier posts.
Figure 9

The following are links to the data use to create Figures 1, 2, and 3.

All other data were downloaded, and the maps were created, using the KNMI Climate Explorer Monthly observations webpage.

(Many thanks to Dr. Geert Jan van Oldenborgh of KNMI for the quick update to RSS TLT version 3.3.)

Monday, March 7, 2011

February 2011 SST Anomaly Update

I’ve moved to WordPress.  This post can now be found at February 2011 SST Anomaly Update

The map of Global OI.v2 SST anomalies for February 2011 downloaded from the NOMADS website is shown below.

February 2011 SST Anomalies Map (Global SST Anomaly = +0.098 deg C)

Monthly NINO3.4 SST anomalies have risen from their ENSO season low, heralding the start of the end of this La Niña. The Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly is -1.24 deg C.

The SST anomalies in most ocean basins rose this month. This is likely as response to the ebbing of the La Niña. The Arctic, North Atlantic, and East Indian-West Pacific are the exceptions; the SST anomalies there rose. The result was no change in Northern Hemisphere SST anomalies, and an increase in Southern Hemisphere data, for an increase in global SST anomalies (+0.031 deg C). They are presently at +0.098 deg C.
(1) Global
Monthly Change = +0.031 deg C
(2) NINO3.4 SST Anomaly
Monthly Change = +0.349 deg C

As noted in the post Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – East Pacific Versus The Rest Of The World, I have added these two datasets to the monthly updates. Both datasets have been adjusted for the impacts of volcanic aerosols, and both are smoothed with 13-month running-average filters to reduce the seasonal noise. The global oceans were divided into these two subsets to illustrate two facts. First, the linear trend of the volcano-adjusted East Pacific (90S-90N, 180-80W) SST anomalies since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 dataset is basically flat, with a linear trend of only 0.08 deg C per Century.
(3) Volcano-Adjusted East Pacific (90S-90N, 180-80W)

And second, the volcano-adjusted SST anomalies for the Rest of the World (90S-90N, 80W-180) rise in very clear steps, in response to the significant 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño/La Niña events. It also appears as though the SST anomalies of this dataset are making another shift in response to the most recent ENSO event.
(4) Volcano-Adjusted Rest of the World (90S-90N, 80W-180)

The SST anomalies in the East Indian and West Pacific took a major nose dive this month.

I’ve added this dataset in an attempt to draw attention to what appears to be the upward steps in response to significant El Niño events that are followed by La Niña events.
(5) East Indian-West Pacific (60S-65N, 80E-180)
Monthly Change = -0.005 deg C

Further information on the upward “step changes” that result from strong El Niño events, refer to my posts from a year ago Can El Niño Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1 and Can El Niño Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2

And for the discussions of the processes that cause the rise, refer to More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 2 – La Niña Events Recharge The Heat Released By El Niño Events AND...During Major Traditional ENSO Events, Warm Water Is Redistributed Via Ocean Currents -AND- More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO - Part 3 – East Indian & West Pacific Oceans Can Warm In Response To Both El Niño & La Niña Events

The animations included in post La Niña Is Not The Opposite Of El Niño – The Videos further help explain the reasons why East Indian and West Pacific SST anomalies can rise in response to both El Niño and La Niña events.

The MONTHLY graphs illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 SST anomaly data from December 1981 to February 2011.

(6) Northern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = 0.000 deg C
(7) Southern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = +0.055 deg C
(8) North Atlantic (0 to 75N, 78W to 10E)
Monthly Change = -0.119 deg C
(9) South Atlantic (0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)
Monthly Change = +0.210 deg C

Note: I discussed the upward shift in the South Atlantic SST anomalies in the post The 2009/10 Warming Of The South Atlantic. It does not appear as though the South Atlantic will return to the level it was at before that surge, and where it had been since the late 1980s. That is, it appears to have made an upward step and continues to rise. Why? Dunno---yet.

(10) North Pacific (0 to 65N, 100 to 270E, where 270E=90W)
Monthly Change = +0.042 Deg C
(11) South Pacific (0 to 60S, 145 to 290E, where 290E=70W)
Monthly Change = +0.014 deg C
(12) Indian Ocean (30N to 60S, 20 to 145E)
Monthly Change = +0.027 deg C
(13) Arctic Ocean (65 to 90N)
Monthly Change = -0.019 deg C
(14) Southern Ocean (60 to 90S)
Monthly Change = +0.003 deg C

The weekly NINO3.4 SST anomaly data portray OI.v2 data centered on Wednesdays. The latest weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies are -1.26 deg C.
(15) Weekly NINO3.4 (5S-5N, 170W-120W)

The weekly global SST anomalies are at +0.115 deg C.
(16) Weekly Global

The Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (OISST) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).


Tips are now being accepted.

Comment Policy, SST Posts, and Notes

Comments that are political in nature or that have nothing to do with the post will be deleted.
The Smith and Reynolds SST Posts DOES NOT LIST ALL SST POSTS. I stopped using ERSST.v2 data for SST when NOAA deleted it from NOMADS early in 2009.

Please use the search feature in the upper left-hand corner of the page for posts on specific subjects.
NOTE: I’ve discovered that some of the links to older posts provide blank pages. While it’s possible to access that post by scrolling through the history, that’s time consuming. There’s a quick fix for the problem, so if you run into an absent post, please advise me. Thanks.
If you use the graphs, please cite or link to the address of the blog post or this website.